|

Let's prepare for the next big bull run in the USD

  • Continuation pattern in play

  • US retail sales ahead

USD

Let's talk about the US Dollar. The US Economy has been adding job at a better than expected rate, unemployment is at 49-year-low and even though the US GDP growth has slowed it's still pretty much growing steadily month over month. The $DXY, on the other hand, has not acted accordingly. Technically speaking on the larger picture we're still pretty much in a bull market but the $DXy has been capped by the 97.70 level.

If we take a look at the shorter picture we can see that the $DXY has also been capped to the downside by the 95.80 level which means that a retest and break of the 97.70 level is still very much in the picture. Now, after testing and failing to break the previous highs, the $DXY has been trading erratically inside a pennant around the 97.00 level which can be considered a continuation pattern, but this pattern will not be completed until it breaks and price trades above the previous swing high (97.20). Until then the US Dollar stays non-directional to us but a break of this pattern could bring enough bull pressure to finally break above the 97.70 level and start a second real bull run of the US Dollar. Tomorrow's Us Retail Sales could be the catalyst for such move. 

Author

Orlando Gutierrez

Orlando Gutierrez

Learn 2 Trade

Orlando has been involved in the financial markets for about 10 years. His focus is Global Macro and he is a strong believer that the best way to trade the currency markets is focusing on the big picture and holding on to big macro trends.

More from Orlando Gutierrez
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1900 as US NFP looms

EUR/USD holds its upbeat momentum above 1.1900 in the European trading hours on Wednesday, helped by a broadly weaker US Dollar. Markets could turn cautious later in the day as the delayed US employment report for January will takes center stage. 

GBP/USD remains above nine-day EMA near 1.3650

GBP/USD recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.3680 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a sustained bullish bias, as the pair trades within an ascending channel pattern.

Gold sticks to gains near $5,050 as focus shifts to US NFP

Gold holds moderate gains near the $5,050 level in the European session on Wednesday, reversing a part of the previous day's modest losses amid dovish US Federal Reserve-inspired US Dollar weakness. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal ahead of the critical US NFP release. 

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show modest job gains in January

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December.

S&P 500 at 7,000 is a valuation test, not a liquidity problem

The rebound from last week’s drawdown never quite shook the sense that it was being supported by borrowed conviction. The S&P 500 once again tested near the 7,000 level (6,986 as the high watermark) and failed, despite a macro backdrop that would normally be interpreted as supportive of risk.

BNB prolonged correction signals deeper bearish momentum
BNB (BNB), formerly known as Binance Coin, is trading below $618 on Wednesday, marking the sixth consecutive day of correction since the weekend. The bearish price action is further supported by rising short bets alongside negative funding rates in the derivatives market.