Lagarde rules out an easy ECB rescue for French debt while Hormuz shipping attacks intensify

EU mid-market update: ASML warns a 30% capacity expansion will still leave AI chipmakers short of equipment in 2027-28; Anthropic set to meet with investors; Lagarde rules out an easy ECB rescue for French debt while Hormuz shipping attacks intensify.

Notes/observations

- Official pushback on rate pricing meets a firmer oil tape. Gilts lead the duration bid with tens 4bp lower at 5.40% after Pill doubted the four BoE hikes in the curve, Brent is back above $106 as Aramco confirms a Houthi hit on its Dhahran headquarters. ASML in focus after Q3 results and strong Q4 guidance, as European bourses climb ~0.5%

- Tuesday left US indices flat amid continuing credit scare in AI infrastructure: CoreWeave’s unsecured notes widened 130-150bp in a day to about 1,000bp over Treasuries, per market commentary, with the 2032s near 15% against 9.625% when dollar notes priced at par in June. Its debt and lease obligations were about $52B at the end of June. Oracle rose 4.2% to $143.20 after proposing an energy service agreement with El Paso Electric for Project Jupiter while saying Bloom Energy fuel cells remain the primary power source. The proposal covers construction, commissioning and backup power, with $10m a year for a decade and credits of up to $55m a year for three years for local customers. It follows a force majeure notice last week and two pipeline-permit rejections by New Mexico’s State Land Office, in March and July. NY Fed’s Williams said one more Fed hike this year is appropriate but sees no need for one in 2027, and the 10-year closed near 5.2% with the 2-year at 4.776%. Axios reported that Trump and Netanyahu discussed new action against Iran last week, with Defense Secretary Hegseth and CENTCOM leadership the strongest advocates for resuming strikes.

- ASML raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €44B-45B and warned that planned manufacturing capacity will not satisfy customer demand in either 2027 or 2028, despite a previously announced 30% expansion of low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity for 2027. The Dutch equipment maker reported Q3 EPS of €12.95 versus €11.14 expected, while revenue of €11.66B was broadly in line with the €11.8B consensus. Net income reached €4.96B, partly helped by a revaluation of its Mistral AI investment, meaning the headline profit beat should not be treated entirely as recurring equipment earnings. The operating figures were nevertheless strong: installed-base management revenue increased to €3.29B from €2.76B, gross margin improved to 57.5% from 54%, and new lithography system sales rose to 113 from 86 in Q2. Management expects approximately 65 EUV shipments in 2026, more than 50% above 2025, while DUV immersion shipments are now expected to be roughly flat rather than decline substantially as anticipated a year ago. Customers are expressing interest in equipment deliveries extending into 2029 and 2030, although interest is not equivalent to contracted orders. ASML rose approximately 1.8% at the European open, helping the technology sector recover from Tuesday's memory-led selloff. The capacity bottleneck potentially extends chipmakers' equipment lead times and capital commitments just as Chinese DRAM competition raises questions about future memory pricing. TSMC's October 15 results will provide the next major test of advanced-node demand, packaging constraints and 2027 semiconductor capital expenditure.

- US September CPI at 14:30 CET is expected at 3.6-3.7% from 3.4%, on a monthly gain near 0.56-0.6% with energy up about 5.5%, while core is seen at 0.2% on the month and 2.4-2.5% on the year. Markets will trade the core number: October hike odds fell to about one in four after weak September payrolls, and a December hike is still largely priced. Williams said on Tuesday that one more hike this year is appropriate but sees no need for one in 2027, and White House adviser Hassett said a Fed hold is very possible if inflation keeps slowing. The 10-year yield was 5.215% after a 2.7bp fall and the 30-year 5.563%. Options flow ahead of the print favoured further long-end selloffs, and one buyer of 30-year call spreads targets about 5.3%. Asset managers have been cutting long-duration futures. A core print of 0.3% or more would put October back in play.

- Anthropic is hosting select institutional investors at its San Francisco headquarters today, with people familiar putting a fair valuation at $1.8-2 trillion, roughly double the $965bn post-money mark of its May Series H. Bloomberg reported that invitations went out in recent days and that formal IPO marketing could start the week of November 9. The range is an investor and banker expectation, and no senior Anthropic executive has publicly fixed a target. Bloomberg also reported that the deal could match or exceed the size of SpaceX’s IPO. The reported agenda is growth, losses, infrastructure commitments, customer concentration and the safety model. Its confidential IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, disclosed 2025 revenue of $4.6B, an operating loss exceeding $8B and approximately $518B in future computing and infrastructure obligations, around 80% of which are non-cancelable or require payment regardless of utilization. The reported $42B net loss included approximately $34B of financing-related accounting charges. Nearly 47% of 2025 revenue flowed through Amazon and Google cloud channels, complicating comparisons with OpenAI's differently calculated revenue figures. The meeting lands in a week when US chips lost a sixth straight session, as the IMF put hyperscalers at 10% of investment-grade issuance. Any read from the room will come through investor leaks rather than company disclosure, since the public prospectus is not yet filed.

- Policymakers leaned against hike pricing in the last 24 hours while long yields stayed high. BoE chief economist Pill, one of three MPC members who voted to hike in September, said he is sceptical of market pricing of four 25bp increases over the next year. MAS surprised by holding its policy band after hikes in April and July, and reports citing people familiar said BOJ officials lean against back-to-back hikes this month. Lagarde said in Bangkok that inflation is rising mostly but not only because of energy, with no second-round effects yet and wage anticipation visible in collective bargaining. German final September HICP was 3.3% against 2.9% in August. UK 10-year gilts were near 5.45% on Tuesday, and the FT reported that Chancellor Healey will fund October 28 Budget giveaways through taxes or spending cuts rather than borrowing. France’s Assembly votes on Article 1 of the 2027 budget today, and a record 56% of European fund managers in BofA’s survey plan to underweight French equities.

- Brent recovered above $106/bbl as Iran intensified attacks on commercial shipping through Hormuz, with two additional vessels reportedly struck and Iranian officials describing a change in targeting tactics. Twenty-four vessels were attacked during the two weeks through October 11, including six on October 11 alone, the most concentrated period of attacks since the conflict began. Shipping estimates put oil movements through Hormuz at approximately 2.9M bpd on October 11 against a September peak of 15.5M bpd, while supertanker charter earnings reportedly reached a record $805K per day on October 9. The daily flow comparison is not a measure of permanent production losses, but the deterioration in physical transit is substantial. The latest escalation also includes a Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran, causing a limited fire but no confirmed interruption to crude production or exports. European TTF gas has meanwhile traded near €87/MWh, its highest level in almost four years, with storage below 74% against a seasonal norm near 90%. Reduced flexible LNG availability makes the gas shortage less responsive to additional crude supply. The IEA Governing Board meets October 15 to examine the implementation of emergency oil and diesel releases, including acceleration of previously committed volumes. Announced reserve releases can ease refinery feedstock or product shortages where barrels are deliverable, but cannot by themselves restore vessel access, marine insurance or LNG flows through Hormuz.

- China’s September exports rose 36.3% from a year earlier against 25.5% expected, the fastest since February, and imports rose 31% against 24.5% expected, widening the trade surplus to $133.5bn against about $117bn expected. Reuters said the surplus with the EU was $34.8bn and with the US $34.0bn, a 20-month high, while semiconductor exports are up 108.1% in January-September and auto exports 54.3%. PPI rose 5.0% on the year against 4.5% expected, its fastest in more than four years and up 1.2% on the month, while CPI was 0.9% against 1.0%. The PBOC fixed the yuan at 6.7249, its strongest since February 2023, which complicates the Western argument that a weak currency drives the export surge. The EU’s rebalancing push targets high-value exports, and China’s car makers’ association said it will keep supporting EU-China trade and investment consultation channels.

- Escondida’s supervisors’ union, about 1,020 workers, has set a strike for 8:00 local time (13:00 CEST) after mandatory mediation ended without a contract, though the union and BHP resumed talks overnight to try to avert it. The union says its final offer accepted about 90% of BHP’s proposals while seeking pay rises and production bonuses, and says BHP wants workers to give up some benefits and share biometric data with third parties. The union president has said the world’s largest copper mine cannot operate without its supervisors and has predicted a near-complete stoppage. Copper rose toward $14,700 a ton, a three-week high, per Bloomberg. BHP has not said what output a walkout would cost or whether it has a contingency plan, and neither side has given a likely duration.

- Ahead of its earnings this morning, Bank of America was fined more than $1.21B on Tuesday, including a record $750M civil penalty from the OCC, with FinCEN citing more than $5bn of suspicious transactions that went unreported. FinCEN said the bank admitted willful Bank Secrecy Act violations and that over $1bn of the unreported activity involved national-security risks, including Chinese money-laundering networks and trade-based laundering linked to the southwest border. OFAC added an $11.6m settlement over 475 apparent violations of Iran, Russia, narcotics and terrorism sanctions, including payments through sanctioned banks. The OCC said the bank failed to fix problems it was ordered to address in December 2024. BofA reports before the US open, alongside Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and State Street. Yesterday Goldman rose about 3% on equities trading while JPMorgan missed on revenue and net income, and the KBW bank index fell more than 1%.

- SpaceX imposed a previously unannounced operating-speed restriction on military Starlink services in Ukraine overnight, disrupting several Ukrainian combat missions, according to presidential adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov. The reported restriction affects StarShield terminals operating on platforms moving faster than 100mph, approximately 160km/h, rather than limiting ordinary internet download speeds. A source within Ukraine's 7th Rapid Reaction Corps separately confirmed operational disruption, while the full technical scope and duration of the restriction remain unclear. SpaceX has not publicly provided a detailed explanation of the change, and speculation about a political instruction should not be treated as established fact. The immediate implications concern communications reliability for high-speed military platforms and the ability of Ukrainian units to adapt to service changes without advance notice. The broader exposure is contractual and operational: critical battlefield communications remain dependent on technical permissions controlled by an external commercial provider.

- Cross-asset: The STOXX 600 rose approximately 0.32% to 636.99 in early European trading, recovering part of Tuesday's decline as ASML gained 1.8% and technology advanced approximately 0.8%. The rebound follows a weak US session in which the S&P 500 finished broadly unchanged, the Nasdaq declined 0.2% and bank shares came under pressure despite generally strong quarterly earnings. Brent traded near $106/bbl, while European gas remained close to four-year highs, keeping the energy-inflation shock distinct from the semiconductor equipment recovery. European sovereign yields opened modestly lower ahead of US inflation data, while the 10-year Treasury yield traded near 5.20%. Japan's five-year JGB auction cleared at an average yield of 2.379% versus 2.239% previously, but demand improved: bid-to-cover rose to 3.56x from 3.42x, and the price tail narrowed to two sen from four. The higher yield therefore accompanied stronger bidding rather than auction deterioration. US September CPI is due October 14 at 08:30 ET, with headline inflation expected at 0.6% month-over-month and 3.6% annually, while core inflation is forecast at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. The Fed Beige Book follows at 14:00 ET, with Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and State Street earnings also due before the US open. October 15 brings TSMC Q3 earnings at 02:00 ET, US PPI and retail sales at 08:30 ET, the IEA Governing Board, euro-area draft-budget submissions and the opening of the October 15-16 European Council. The near-term repricing risk runs across three distinct channels: US inflation and sovereign duration, semiconductor equipment availability and AI capital commitments, and the ability of policy intervention to offset physical energy disruptions.

- Asia closed mixed with Shanghai underperforming -0.9%. EU indices +0.4-0.7%. US futures +0.3%. Gold -0.5%, DXY +0.1%; Commodity: Brent -0.3%, WTI -0.1%; Crypto: BTC -0.2%, ETH -0.3%.

Asia

- China Sept Trade Balance: $133.5B v $118.8Be; Exports Y/Y: 36.3% v 25.5%e; Imports Y/Y: 31.0% v 24.5%e.

- China Sept CPI Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0% prior; PPI Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.4%e.

- Singapore Central Bank (MAS) Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement maintained its policy stance to resume its pause under current tightening cycle (not expected).

- Singapore Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 1.1% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.2%e.

- Australia Sept Westpac Leading Index M/M: -0.06% v -0.02% prior.

- IMF officials noted that higher bond yields underscored the urgency of fiscal consolidation.

Global conflict/tensions

- Iran was reportedly employing new tactics to target vessels in and beyond Strait of Hormuz; Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued.

- Saudi Aramco administrative building in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia said to have targeted on Tuesday. Suspected Houthi strike in retaliation after Riyadh-led coalition targets sites in Yemen’s capital.

- Houthi forces said to have intensified their offensive against Yemen’s third-largest city of Taiz.

- More reports circulated that Trump discussed the possibility of a major military operation against Iran before the Israeli and US elections.

Europe

- ECB Chief Lagarde: Inflation has been rising predominantly but not exclusively as a result of energy prices. We're not seeing any second round effects yet. In Europe you see anticipation of wage increases through collective bargaining arrangements, we're following those entry points.

- ECB's Moulin (France): Inflation was mainly due to conflict in Middle East, energy related. Inflation expectations by corporates and households in the medium term were well anchored.

- ECB's Wunsch (Belgium): ECB will probably have to hike interest rates again.

- UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Healy set to pay for budget giveaways without more borrowing (suggesting that all extra discretionary spending was fully funded)

Americas

- Fed's Collins (non-voter) noted that tightening monetary policy would help return inflation to 2%; Expected Fed would raise rates 'a bit further' this year.

- Fed's Williams (moderate, voter) saw no need for rate hike in 2027 at this time with one more interest rate hike appropriate this year.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE +0.14% at 10,665.12, DAX +0.45% at 25,374.25, CAC-40 +0.58% at 7,873.39, IBEX-35 +0.51% at 19,308.27, FTSE MIB +0.15% at 50,132.50, SMI +0.59% at 14,009.10, S&P 500 Futures +0.20%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equity bourses advanced on Wednesday as ASML’s stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter sales forecast, driven by sustained AI datacenter demand for advanced lithography tools, reignited appetite for technology shares and allowed continental indices to absorb hawkish remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde. The most notable individual movers included Teleperformance and Rémy Cointreau each surging approximately 5.5%, DNO rising 5% on oil strength after Strait of Hormuz vessel attacks, while SEB fell 4.5% after Sweden’s regulator imposed a capital-requirement add-on and Ørsted dropped 4% on reports of a US permit re-evaluation for its Rhode Island offshore-wind project. Lagarde explicitly placed the burden of France’s 5.4% GDP budget deficit on Parisian lawmakers, cooling speculation of ECB Transmission Protection Instrument activation and forcing markets to retain an elevated risk premium on French OATs. Broader positioning stayed cautious ahead of the US CPI release, with 10-year Treasury yields near multi-decade peaks above 5.20% leaving growth-stock multiples vulnerable to any hotter-than-expected inflation signal that could revive expectations of a late-October Federal Reserve rate hike.

Equities

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: Rémy Cointreau [RCO.FR] +5.5% (sharp rebound in heavily sold-off spirits shares, with no fresh company release identified), Teleperformance [TEP.FR] +5.5% (Goldman Sachs disclosed that its holding had crossed above 5% of the company’s capital).

TECHNOLOGY: ASML [ASML.NL] +2.5% (Q3 EPS, revenue and gross margin beat expectations; Q4 sales guidance exceeded consensus and FY sales guidance narrowed upward to €44-45bn), ASM International [ASM.NL] +2.0%, BE Semiconductor Industries [BESI.NL] +1.5%, Infineon [IFX.DE] +1.5% (semiconductor-equipment and chip shares gained after ASML flagged AI-driven demand exceeding its planned 2027-28 capacity), Capgemini [CAP.FR] +3.5% (European technology shares rebound following ASML’s stronger AI-demand outlook), Softcat [SCT.UK] +1.0% (FY underlying operating profit rose 19% to £215.1m, ahead of consensus, with the IT reseller guiding for high-single-digit underlying operating-profit growth in FY27 excluding its GDT acquisition).

ENERGY: DNO [DNO.NO] +5.0% (Q3 trading update supported the shares as oil strengthened after vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz), Orsted [ORSTED.DK] -4.0% (the US government will reportedly re-evaluate the permit for the company's Rhode Island offshore-wind project).

INDUSTRIALS / DEFENCE: Antofagasta [ANTO.UK] +3.0%, Anglo American [AAL.UK] +3.0%, Glencore [GLEN.UK] +3.0%, ArcelorMittal [MT.NL] +1.0% (stronger Chinese trade data and accelerating factory-gate inflation improved the demand read-through for metals and miners), Vonovia [VNA.DE] +1.5% (rate-sensitive property shares benefited as global government-bond yields eased ahead of US inflation data).

FINANCIALS: SEB [SEB-A.SE] -4.5% (Sweden's financial regulator imposed a temporary capital-requirement add-on after identifying more extensive deficiencies in the bank's internal credit-risk models).

Speakers

- BOE’s Pill (chief economist; hawkish dissenter) noted that had been a converge of different views on MPC; He pushed back on market pricing for roughly 100 bps of hikes, saying “risk premiums” should be discounted and policy beyond year-end to depend on incoming data.

- Germany Economic Ministry Monthly Report: Momentum of economy likely to have temporarily slowed in Q3.

- Austria WIFO Quarterly Economic Forecasts maintained its 2026 GDP growth from 0.9% while raising 2027 GDP growth forecast from 1.1% to 1.3%. Forecasts raised the 2026 CPI from 3.2% to 3.3% and raised 2027 CPI from 2.4% to 2.6%.

- Oman Foreign Ministry: Discussion with Iran on Hormuz have concluded; Finalization depends on US-Iran talks.

- China Premier Li Qiang said to vow to strengthen IP protection for foreign companies.

- IEA Monthly Oil Report cut its 2026 global oil demand growth from -2.5M bpd to -2.6M bpd and cut 2026 global oil supply growth from -5.7M bpd to -5.8M bpd. For 2027 IEA cut the global oil demand growth from 2.6M bpd to 2.0M bpd and cut the global oil supply growth from 8.0M bpd to 7.7M bpd.

Currencies

- USD was slightly softer as the EU session began with focus on the upcoming US Sept CPI reading (seen as a key input for ahead of the Fed’s next rate decision. Currently markets saw over 75% chance of a pause at the Oct policy meeting. Markets saw almost 90% chance of a hike occurring at the Dec meeting (if paused in Oct) with 69% for a 25bps hike and 19% chance of a 50bps hike. Several Fed officials over the past 24 hours noted of the need for one more rate hike this year.

- GBP/USD was slightly softer at 1.3265 after BOE chief economist Pill expressed doubt that the four quarter-point interest-rate hikes that markets were pricing in would be needed to contain inflation. The 10-year Gilt Yield was lower by over 5 bps.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.45%, France 10-year Oat at 4.81% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.39%; 10-year Treasury yield: 5.19%; 10-year JGB: 2.99%.

Economic data

- (FI) Finland Sept CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.2% prior.

- (DE) Germany Sept Wholesale Price Index M/M: 1.9% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 8.7% v 6.8% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Sept Final CPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.9% prelim; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.1% prelim.

- (SE) Sweden Sept Final CPIF M/M: 0.9% v 0.9% prelim; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.5% prelim.

- (SE) Sweden Sept Final CPIF (ex-energy) M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5% prelim.

- CPI Level: 125.94 v 125.94e.

- (SE) Sweden Sept Household Consumption M/M: 1.1% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.5% v 2.3% prior.

- (IN) India Sept Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 11.4% v 10.6%e; Output PPI Y/Y: 11.4% v 9.8% prior.

- (ES) Spain Sept Final CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 4.9%e v 4.9% prelim.

- (ES) Spain Sept Final; CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6%e v 0.6% prelim; Y/Y: 5.0%e v 5.0% prelim.

- (ES) Spain Sept CPI Core M/M: -0.2% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y (final): 3.1% v 3.1% prelim.

- (PL) Poland Sept Final CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.7% prelim; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.0% prelim.

- (CZ) Czech Aug Current Account Balance (CZK): -17.2B v -14.2Be.

- (CN) China Sept YTD New Yuan Loans (CNY): 11.520T v 11.465Te.

- (CN) China Sept YTD Aggregate Financing (CNY): 27.460T v 27.251Te.

- (CN) China Sept M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.2% v 7.4%e; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.2% v 4.0%e; M0 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.6% v 11.2% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR230B vs. INR230B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- (UK) DMO sold £5.0B in 4.625% May 2030 Gilts; Avg Yield: 4.945% v 4.786% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.41x v 3.24x prior Tail: 0.2bps v 0.3bps prior.

- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK5.0B vs. SEK5.0B indicated in 2035 and 2037 Bonds.

- (NO) Norway sold total NOK vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 2028 and 2036 Bonds.

Looking ahead

- (CO) Colombia Sept Consumer Confidence: No est v 15.5 prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:25 (ES) ECB’s Escriva (Spain).

- 05:25 (CH) Switzerland to sell 0.25% Jun 2035 Bonds.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell combined €2.5B in 2047 and 2056 Bunds.

- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell €1.25-1.5B in 2036 and 2052 OT bonds.

- 05:30 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays.

- 05:40 (US) Fed’s Bowman.

- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2036 variable bonds.

- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell €250-500M in 6-month Bills.

- 06:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 9th: No est v -4.2% prior.

- 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM Question time in House.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Aug IBGE Services Volume M/M: 0.6%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 0.9% prior.

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Aug Current Account Balance:-€2.6Be v -€2.4B prior; Trade Balance: -€2.2Be v -€1.8B prior; Exports: €27.9Be v €31.4B prior; Imports: €31.0Be v €33.2B prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) Sept CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.4% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept Core CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.4% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept CPI NSA Index: 336.620e v 334.980 prior; Core CPI Index: 338.502e v 337.765 prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept Real Avg Hourly Earning Y/Y: No est v -0.3% prior; Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 0.4% prior (revised from 0.3%).

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Building Permits M/M: +3.0%e v -17.3% prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 30-year Bonds.

- 13:30 (US) Fed’s Barkin.

- 14:00 (US) Fed Beige Book.

- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Aug Core Machine Orders M/M: +2.3%e v -3.7% prior; Y/Y: 15.6%e v 11.2% prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Sept Employment Change: +20.0Ke v +39.5K prior; Unemployment Rate: 4.6%e v 4.6% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v -6.3K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v +45.8K prior; Participation Rate: 67.0%e v 67.1% prior.

- 21:00 (NZ) New Zealand to sell combined NZ$450M in 2032, 2036 and 2054 bonds.

- 21:30 (JP) BOJ’s Koeda.

- 21:35 (PT) ECB’s Pereira (Portugal).

- 22:35 (UK) BOE’s Pill (chief economist).

- 23:00 (KR) South Korea Aug M2 Money Supply M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; ‘L’ Money Supply M/M: No est v -0.5% prior.

- 23:00 (ID) Indonesia Aug External Debt: No est v $454.8B prior.

- 23:00 (KR) South Korea Sept Total Bank Lending to Household (KRW): No est v 1198.3T prior.

- 23:35 (AT) ECB’s Kocher (Austria).