Kiwi trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating lower

Part 1) Introduction

In the short term, Kiwi has been accelerating lower. In the long term, Kiwi has been accelerating lower. With the short-term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with a one-week time horizon.

Part 2) Trade Idea Details

Sell $ 64,987 NZD , or 0.65 lots of Kiwi, take profit at $ 0.5543 level with 25.0% odds for a $ 1,718 NZD gain, stop out at $ 0.5781 with 50.01% odds for a $ 1,000 NZD loss through 1w time horizon

Part 3) NZDUSD Trend Analysis

NZD/USD's last price was $ 0.569362. The short-term trend accelerating lower is stronger than the long-term trend accelerating lower. This trade goes short when the last change was lower and accelerating.

Part 4) NZDUSD Value Analysis

Over the past 20 days, the NZD/USD price increased 10 days and decreased 10 days. For every up day, there were 1.0 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.5452% The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.0425% Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -4.96% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.248% percent.

Part 5) NZD/USD - Worst/Best Case Scenario Analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for NZDUSD, is $ 0.543414, and the best case scenario overnight is $ 0.59531. levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 0.5781 could trade and that $ 0.5543 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Key Takeaways:

• Price today $ 0.569362
• Over the past 20 days, the NZDUSD price increased 10 days and decreased 10 Days.
• For every up day, there were 1.0 down days.
• The average return on days where the price increased is 0.5452%
• The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.0425%
• Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -4.96% percent.
• Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.248% percent.
• Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 4.3526 pips per day lower
• Over the last session, the price decreased by -82.7 pips
• Over the last session, the price decreased by -1.4525 %
• Over the last session, the price accelerated by 44.38 pips