Jobs Friday

USD: Sep '26 is Down at 99.805.  

Energies: Sep '26 Crude is Down at 76.91.

Financials: The Sep '26 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 3 ticks and trading at 109.14.

Indices: The Jun '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 45 ticks Higher and trading at 7746.00.

Gold: The Aug'26 Gold contract is trading Up at 4377.70.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Down which is not normal, and the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia traded Mixed.  All of Europe is trading Higher. 

Possible challenges to traders

• Average Hourly Earnings m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST.    Major.
• Non-Farm Employment Change is out at 8:30 AM EST.    Major.
• Unemployment Rate is out at 8:30 AM EST.    Major.
• FOMC Member Barkin Speaks is out at 10 AM EST.   Major.
• Consumer Credit m/m is out at 3 PM EST.   Major.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 8 AM EST with Unemployment Claims pending.   The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 8 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 12 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Sep '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias, but the markets veered to the Downside.  The Dow dropped 464 points, and the other indices lost ground as well.  Given that today is Jobs Friday, our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday the markets veered to the Downside and today is Jobs Friday, so our bias is Neutral or Mixed.