Job openings calm markets

USD: Jun '25 is Down at 99.155.  

Energies: Jul '25 Crude is Up fractionally at 63.44.

Financials: The Sep '25 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 2 ticks and trading at 112.05.

Indices: The Jun '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 49 ticks Higher and trading at 5993.50.

Gold: The Aug'25 Gold contract is trading Down at 3373.40.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Down and Crude is Up which is normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. All of Asia traded Higher.  All of Europe is trading Mixed.

Possible challenges to traders

• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is out at 8:15 AM EST.  This is Major.

• FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 8:30 AM EST.    This is Major.

• FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Final Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST.  This is Major.

• ISM Services PMI is out at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Crude Oil Inventories is out at 10:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Beige Book is out at 2 PM EST.  This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT slid Lower at around 9 AM EST with no real news to speak of.  The Dow climbed Lower at the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow moved Lower at 9 AM EST and the ZT slide Lower at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Sep '25 and the Dow is still Jun '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts 

ZT -Sep 2025 - 6/03/25

Dow - Jun 2025- 6/03/25

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Downside bias, but the markets had other ideas.  The Dow gained 176 points on the session and the other indices traded Higher.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday the markets were poised to go Lower but then the Jolts Job Opening numbers were released which exceeded expectation, this calmed the markets, and they leapt Higher.  Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?