Job numbers doesn't help

USD: Jun '26 is Down at 100.030.  

Energies: Jun '26 Crude is Up at 94.04.

Financials: The Jun '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 7 ticks and trading at 111.17.

Indices: The Jun '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 115 ticks Higher and trading at 7429.00.

Gold: The Apr'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4325.10.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Up which is normal, and the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia traded Lower, all of Europe is trading Mixed.  

Possible challenges to traders                                                  

• No Major Economic news to speak of.
• Lack of Major economic news.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with Unemployment Claims pending. The Dow dived Lower at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Jun '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

On Friday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias as it was Jobs Friday with the job's numbers coming in at 172,000 versus 85,000 expected.  You would think that this allow would propel the markets upward, but the inflation numbers are elevated, and no one expects a rate cut.  They probably anticipate a rate hike, but of course time will tell.  The Dow dropped 695 points, and the other indices lost ground as well.  Today our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

It seems that inflation is still the name of the game, so to speak and the Iran war isn't helping as the price of energy is elevated as well as fertilizer.