It‘s too early to say that Oil is range-bound here

Monica Kingsley Monicakingsley

Semiconductors and tech sent S&P 500 sharply down – chips and China in focus, with ASML earnings failing to convince. Russell 2000 and other pockets of strength managed to move sideways as price spikes were rejected here too. Positive housing data and roughly a per latest expectations 20y Treasury auction failed to provide a relief rally into the close that would stick. Even mighty gold (my oasis within select sectoral picks shared with clients) suffered an intraday setback.

Best to have a look at this S&P 500 market breadth chart.

Precarious position where S&P 500 is sitting at a strong support (corresponding to $557 SPY with QQQ leading to the downside (well below analogical support), and XLC understandably joining too. Time to be wary, because if the support breaks, there is quite some quick room to the downside.

Let‘s mve right into the charts – today‘s full scale article contains 3 more of them, with commentaries.

Tired of seeing those red boxes instead of way more valuable information? Try the premium services based on what and how you trade.

Crude Oil

It‘s too early to say that oil is range-bound here – I favor at least one more push lower challenging yesterday‘s lows. Given though the US uncertainty, I would favor such a distinct move to happen only next week – slow push to the downside (to $80.50 but not too below) is more appropriate for the current one.

Author

Monica Kingsley

Monicakingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.

EUR/USD weakens as US jobs data trims Fed rate cut bets

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 1.1860 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index inflation report.

GBP/USD bullish outlook prevails above 1.3600, UK GDP data looms

The GBP/USD pair gains ground near 1.3635, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Thursday. The preliminary reading of UK Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter will be closely watched later on Thursday. The UK economy is estimated to grow 0.2% QoQ in Q4, versus 0.1% in Q1.

Gold remains on the defensive below two-week top; lacks bearish conviction amid mixed cues

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses through the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to a nearly two-week high, touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades above the $5,070 level, down just over 0.20% for the day, amid mixed cues.

UK GDP set to post weak growth as markets rise bets on March rate cut

Markets will be watching closely on Thursday, when the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the advance estimate of Q4 Gross Domestic Product. If the data land in line with consensus, the UK economy would have continued to grow at an annualised pace of 1.2%, compared with 1.3% recorded the previous year.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

Sonic Labs’ vertical integration fuels recovery in S token

Sonic, previously Fantom (FTM), is extending its recovery trade at $0.048 at the time of writing, after rebounding by over 12% the previous day. The recovery thesis’ strengths lie in the optimism surrounding Sonic Labs’ Wednesday announcement to shift to a vertically integrated model, aimed at boosting S token utility.