Frank Walbaum
FX Strategies.Asia
Important news for the day
- Tue, 05th, 04:30 CET AU RBA interest rate decision.
- Tue, 05th US Presidential election.
US election day
According to the polls, it will be a close race in the US election. Kamala Harris could even be in the lead, as the latest figures suggest. Some may be reminded of the 2016 election, in which Trump surprisingly won. Financial markets have lost some momentum in the past week, but are currently in a sideways pattern. Last week's candlestick pattern suggests that the downward momentum could continue. In the long term, it will not matter who the new President will be, as the indices are likely to continue their medium term path.
Market talk
The RBA has left interest rates at similar levels and hence the Australian Dollar did not offer much momentum moving forward. Instead some upside can be seen, which might be fuelled due to the slight weakness of the Greenback in general. Precious metals remain in sideways pattern, similarly to oil prices. Both markets might proceed to lower levels as the long- term charting pattern is suggesting. Crypto markets on the other hand have started some slight upside momentum. Yet also these markets look rater limited and might also face further setbacks in the near future. The general outlook in markets might be influenced by Gold prices. The weekly chart is suggesting a bearish candlestick pattern, which might lead to falling prices. The risk sentiment could hence face upside price action.
Tendencies in the markets
- Equities sideways, USD weaker, cryptos sideways, oil sideways, metals sideways, JPY stronger.
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EUR/USD remains heavy below 1.0550 as focus shifts to US ISM PMI
EUR/USD remians under heavy selling pressure below 1.0550 in early European session on Monday. The pair is dragged down by dovish ECB-speak and a firmer US Dollar following Trump tariffs threat on BRICS-fuelled flight to safety. Investors now look forward to US ISM Manufacturing PMI data due later in the day.
GBP/USD holds losses near 1.2700 on stronger US Dollar
GBP/USD consolidates losses near 1.2700 early Monday, reversing a major part of Friday's positive move. The slide is sponsored by a goodish pickup in the haven demand for the US Dollar, as traders remain wary over the latest Trump tariffs threat on BRICS nations. US ISM PMI is next in focus.
Gold price remains heavily offered amid renewed USD buying interest
Gold price meets with heavy supply on Monday and snaps a four-day winning streak. Rebounding US bond yields help revive the USD demand and weigh on the commodity. Trade war concerns and geopolitical risks do little to lend support to the XAU/USD.
Bitcoin consolidates while ETH, XRP rallies
Bitcoin consolidated on Monday following its recovery from last week's pullback. At the same time, Ethereum and Ripple extended their rallies, driven by investors reallocating capital from BTC to altcoins, signaling the potential for continued upward momentum.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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