Denis Joeli Fatiaki
Independent Analyst
Insights for the Asian trading session 14/9/2018
* Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation (Remains at 4%)
* Australia Employment Change s.a.(Up 44.0K from 15.0K consensus and -3.9K from the previous period)
* Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. (Remains at 5.3%)
* Australia Participation Rate (Up 65.7% from 65.6% consensus and 65.5% from the previous period)
* Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Yoy) (Remains at 2%)
* France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) (Remains at 2.6%)
* Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Remains at 2%)
* Turkey CBRT Interest Rate Decision (24.00% from 22.00%
consensus and 17.75% from the previous period)
* United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision (Remains at 0.75%)
* United Kingdom BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Remains at 435B)
* European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision (Remains at 0.75%)
* European Monetary Union ECB Deposit Rate Decision (Remains at 0.0%)
* United States Continuing Jobless Claims (1.696M from 1.710M consensus and 1.711M from the previous period)
* United States Initial Jobless Claims (204K from 210k consensus and 205K from the previous period)
* United States Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (0.1% from 0.2% consensus and 0.2% from the previous period)
* United States Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (2.2% from 2.4% consensus and 2.4% from the previous period)
* United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) (2.7% from 2.8% consensus and 2.9% from the previous period)
* United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a (258.141 from 258.480 consensus and 257.930 from the previous period)
Friday's macro summary:
* China Retail Sales (YoY) - Fri, Sep 14 2018 02:00 GMT
* China Industrial Production (YoY) - Fri, Sep 14 2018 02:00 GMT
* China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) - Fri, Sep 14 2018 02:00 GMT
* United Kingdom BOE's Governor Carney speech - Fri, Sep 14, 2018, 10:00 GMT
* United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) - Fri, Sep 14 2018 12:30 GMT
* United States Retail Sales (MoM) - Fri, Sep 14 2018 12:30 GMT
* United States Retail Sales control group - Fri, Sep 14 2018 12:30 GMT
* United States Industrial Production (MoM) - Fri, Sep 14 2018 13:15 GMT
* United States Capacity Utilization - Fri, Sep 14 2018 13:15 GMT
* United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Fri, Sep 14, 2018, 14:00 GMT
The FX Majors Current positions and its future forecast
What is going on now with AUD/USD?
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar was supported by improved economic data in yesterday's session and took out all of its long price targets at 0.71790, 0.71944, and 0.72085 as indicated in yesterday's update and on the 30 minutes chart below. The pair retreated from 0.72254 during the European session and finished the session at around 0.71944 support.
Our forecast
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar continues to drift down as it slips below 0.71944 support and trades in a very tight price channel just above its 500 EMA. The pair currently trades at 0.71934 and could fall to its 500 EMA at 0.71790 if it falls below the price channel. The Australian dollar needs to hold above 0.71944 and breakout of the price channel to head back up to 0.72085. The next target after 0.72085 is estimated at 0.72254.
Chart 1: The short-term view of the AUD/USD price action in the 30 minutes price chart highlights the direction of the trend and the support and resistance price points
Chart 2: The short-term view of the AUD/USD price action in the 60 minutes price chart highlights the direction of the trend and the support and resistance price points
What is going on now with EUR/USD?
EUR/USD: The Euro retreated to 1.16156 support at the bottom of the price channel in yesterday's session; however, it bounced during the European session and charged to the top, taking out four of its long price targets at 1.16390, 1.16590, 1.16766, and 1.16890 as highlighted in yesterday's update.
Our forecast
EUR/USD: The Euro retreated to 1.16766; however the pair headed back up and finished the overnight session above 1.16890. The pair currently trades at 1.16890 and attempts to continue its rally to the upside. The pair needs to break and hold above 1.16890 to continue to its next target at 1.17114
The pair could retreat to 1.16766 and 1.16590 if it fails to break at 1.16890.
Chart 1: The short-term view of the EUR/USD price action in the 30 minutes price chart highlights the direction of the trend and the support and resistance price points
Chart 2: The short-term view of the EUR/USD price action in the 60 minutes price chart highlights the direction of the trend and the support and resistance price points
What is going on now with GBP/USD?
GBP/USD: The Pound bounced in the middle of the price channel and blasted to the top after the UK economic announcement during the European session. The pair surged and took out three of its long targets at 1.30710, 1.30897, and 1.31210 before retreating to 1.30897 support.
Our forecast
GBP/USD: The Pound pierced through the middle price channel in the 30 minutes price chart and finished the overnight session in the top channel. The pair continued its rally from the previous close at 1.31089 and now head towards 1.31210 price target. If it makes at 1.31210 price target, then the next target is estimated at 1.31480. Support is estimated at 1.30897 and 1.30710
Chart 1: The short-term view of the GBP/USD price action in the 60 minutes price chart highlights the direction of the trend and the support and resistance price points
Chart 2: The short-term view of the GBP/USD: price action in the 60 minutes price chart highlights the direction of the trend and the support and resistance price points
What is going on now with USD/JPY?
USD/JPY: The US dollar managed to maintain its uptrend position after bouncing at its 500 EMA. The pair broke through its first long target at 111.430 as highlighted in yesterday's update and later took out the second target at 111.885.
Our forecast
USD/JPY: The Us dollar continued its uptrend in the Asian session and currently trades at 111.984, approaching 112.010 price target. The pair needs to break and hold above 112.010 to continue to its next target at 112.206. Support is estimated at 111.885 and 111.632
Chart 1: The short-term view of the USD/JPY price action in the 60 minutes price chart highlights the direction of the trend and the support and resistance price points
Chart 2: The short-term view of the price action USD/JPY in the four-hour price chart highlights the direction of the trend and the support and resistance price points
What is going on now with USD/CAD?
USD/CAD: The US dollar still consolidates at 1.30008 and 1.29843 as highlighted in yesterday's update. The pair had numerous attempts to take off above 1.30008, but all failed and remained subdued under 1.30008.
Our forecast
USD/CAD: The US dollar currently trades at 1.30004 in the 60 minutes price chart. The pair still needs to break and hold above 1.30008 as indicated in the previous update to continue to its first long target at 1.30460. Support estimate remains at 1.29843
Chart 1: The short-term view of the USD/CAD price action in the 60 minutes price chart highlights the direction of the trend and the support and resistance price points
Chart 2: The short-term view of the USD/CAD price action in the four-hour price chart highlights the direction of the trend and the support and resistance price points
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