Recall the WTI trade last December from 44 ish to 52 for 8 quick points in 1 or 2 days. It was the best and only trade available. The recommendation then was leave WTI alone above 52.00's. For 6 months, WTI traded above 52, around significant averages and trended higher at barely 2 points per month. The top at 60's was missed but my specialty is currencies so wasn't interested in a top.

What changed since December was the overall averages changed slightly yet to no significance but ranges remain today as then at maximum 22 points.

Why dead ranges is because WTI contains negative correlations to DXY, 2 and 10Y Yields, S&P's, and Fed Funds. WTI Positively correlates to GDP. If GDP goes higher then WTI will follow. WTI is a lost price and doesn't have a clue where to trade.

I suspect many other commodities also contain dead ranges and no correlations. The reason is a vast majority of currency and commodities trade below 5 year averages. Of 29 Currency pairs including DXY, 8 trade above 5 year averages while 21 pairs trade below. WTI trades below at 56.69.

If the FED Cuts interest rates and I haven't seen a good argument as to why then ranges for all financial instruments, including currencies will compress further. The higher prices travel then the expansion of ranges will be seen and the faster prices will move. Downside won't experience the same quickness to drops as prices are already deeply compressed and lay on the floor.

The top in WTI is located at 63.71. At 56.69 represents a big break for WTI to move higher but 53.02 and 56.06 must break. The next trade we want entry at around  48.75 to target 51.89, 52.46. A break at 53.02 then targets 56.06.

Trading currencies and other financial instruments carries a degree of loss and possible loss of entire investments. Please managed your own risks, stop loss, and margins requirements.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD ends Monday just above 1.1200

The EUR/USD pair finishes the first day of the week with a downward tone, as the greenback managed to extend its gains against most major rivals. Risk-related sentiment favors the greenback, while upcoming ECB’s monetary policy decision weighs on the common currency.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD depressed but off daily lows

The Sterling came under selling pressure on news that Sir Alan Duncan has resigned as foreign office minister in the middle of a conflict with Iran. Tensions mounts ahead of Tories’ leadership definition.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY remains in daily range below 108 following Kuroda comments

The USD/JPY pair is having a hard time finding direction in the second half of the day and continues to move sideways below the 108 mark.

USD/JPY News

Altcoins are set up to hunt for Bitcoin

Among the main Altcoins, only Ethereum is yet to be crossed upwards. XRP moves in another ecosystem and will not pull the market. Libra may be positive, not a danger to the market.

Read more

Gold holds tight above $1,400 as market weighs up 25 and 50 basis point cut scenarios

Gold prices have entered the final hour of Wall Street's trade on Monday, around flat for the session at $1,427, having stuck to a tight $1,422 and $1,430 range for the day.

Gold News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures