ING believes EUR/USD will break 1.20, and you?


What is moving the markets these days? What are the main drivers of currency pairs?

First, the vaccination pace. The second, the recovery speed. And finally, investors are concerned about how soon the central banks will tighten the policy (increase rates or/and cut asset purchases).

Let’s analyze the most traded pair – EUR/USD. At the first sight, the US is doing better than the Euro Area. The percentage of vaccinated people is much higher in the US than in the EU. Elsewhere, after problems with AtraZeneca’s vaccine, Johnson & Johnson stopped sending its vaccine to the EU as well because of the possible negative side effects.

While the US does not depend on J&J, Europe may suffer a delay of 3-4 months to obtain its goal to vaccinate 70% of the population. As a result, it may significantly worsen the situation in Eurozone and press the euro down.

Chart

However, EU retail sales came out much better than expected this Monday: 3.0% vs the forecast of 1.3%. It’s just the beginning of further growth – more to come in the months ahead! Elsewhere, according to Barclays, European people acquired savings at 600 billion euros ($714 billion) during long lockdowns. But when they feel free to go out without any restrictions, they will tend to spend them more. So, consumer spending will grow and help the economy to recover.

Forecasts

ING foresees the tentative recovery for Europe. The bank points that the USD has started losing its steam and the breakout of EUR/USD above 1.2000 is very likely! According to ING’s model, EUR/USD is undervalued by almost 2%. Indeed, if you look at the chart below, you’ll notice that the RSI indicator is well below 70.00 level, so it’s not overbought.

US Retail Sales today

Today US retail sales will come out at 15:30 MT and will have a great impact on EUR/USD. The general rule is that if US retail sales are better than expected, the USD will surge; if worse – the USD will fall. However, some analysts believe that if retail sales come out better than the forecasts, it may fuel the ongoing risk-on sentiment and press down the USD, which will push EUR/USD higher. Anyway, follow the results and keep an eye on the charts.

Tech analysis

EUR/USD has failed to cross the resistance of 1.1990-1.2000 so far. However, if it does, the way up to the 100-day moving average of 1.2050 will be open.

On the flip side, if it breaks below the 50-day moving average of 1.1960, the way down to the 200-day moving average of 1.1890 will be clear.

EURUSD

This post is written and submitted by FBS Markets for informational purposes only. In no way shall it be interpreted or construed to create any warranties of any kind, including an offer to buy or sell any currencies or other instruments. The views and ideas shared in this post are deemed reliable and based on the most up-to-date and trustworthy sources. However, the company does not take any responsibility for accuracy and completeness of the information, and the views expressed in the post may be subject to change without prior notice.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.22 as the dollar slides across the board

EUR/USD has extended its gains and has topped 1.22, the highest since February. The safe-haven dollar is weakening amid the risk-on mood and as the Fed sticks to its dovish policy. US housing figures were mixed. The Fed's Bostic is set to speak later. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD extends corrective slide below 1.4200

GBP/USD trades around 1.4180, retreating from 1.4219, the highest since February. Britain's unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to 4.8% as the reopening continues. The dollar is on the back foot amid the upbeat market mood.

GBP/USD News

XAU/USD consolidates below $1870 amid risk-on mood

Gold price has entered a phase of upside consolidation, having faced rejection once again above $1870. The gold price looks unimpressed by the latest leg down in the US dollar, amid dovish Fed expectations.

Gold News

SEC attempts to block XRP holders from presenting evidence in Ripple case

The Securities & Exchange Commission filed another objection to the motion to intervene by XRP holders. The government agency argues that allowing third-party defendants into the case would “sow chaos” into the litigation.

Read more

Coinbase reveals intention to raise $1.25 billion following direct listing

Since its debut on the Nasdaq, Coinbase’s share price has merely collapsed. Given the recent weakness in its stock price, the leading cryptocurrency exchange is looking for a further cash injection. 

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures