|

Inflation shares negative correlations to imports, exports, interest and exchange rates

The Economics to markets and prices is the unifying feature across all national central banks as Import and Export Lines. Import and Export lines in every nation correlates +80%. Interest rates Correlate to Import and Export lines at 70% and 80%. Exchange rates correlate to Import and Export lines at 70% and 80%.

The alignment to Imports, Exports, interest and exchange rates is a permanent feature of Economics, markets and central banks as all move together in unison as one big giant block. Proper alignment determines  a healthy economy.

Inflation shares negative correlations to Imports, Exports, Interest and exchange rates. The sidebar issue is Producer Prices Correlates to Inflation at +13%. This relationship and concept is a non issue.

Based on years of monthly and yearly data for the Fed and BOJ, leaders of the Fed fail to view Import, Exports, Inflation and Exchange rates in determination to change interest rates. The change of interest rates on every interest move occurred at the wrong times. Every change to interest rates had the opposite effects as higher Inflation persisted.

The number of raises and drops particularly in succession was a sledgehammer and not required in relation to Import and Export lines. king Powell raised Fed Funds 500 points when only 25 points was required.

Powell in 2019 lowered Fed Funds 75 points when Import and Export Lines were negative. Powell drove the lines into further negative territory. While Import and Export lines were deeply negative in March 2020, Powell slashed Fed Funds 150 points.

As Import and Export Lines bottomed in 2020, a massive climb began to Imports 13.0 and Exports 20.0 by March 2022. The Import and Export Lines lifted Inflation to 9.1. Previous Import and Export Lines at 13.0 and 20.0 was seen briefly in 2021 and 2015.

As Imports and Exports began the monthly climb, Inflation was Imported to every nation on the planet by higher Import and Export lines to all nations.

The BOJ intervened on USD/JPY in September and October 2022 because BOJ Import and export lines threatened trade by a massive and continuous rise. Powell forced the BOJ to intervene by importing Inflation.

The March 2022 raise at 25 points was the only requirement as Import and Export lines began dropping every month. Powell required time as Import, export and Inflation numbers are slow  movers.

Today’s Import line at -0.8 and -1.8 for Exports is again not a perfect time to touch interest rates as a cut forces Inflation higher. The Import and Export lines will assist to Inflations rise. 

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

More from Brian Twomey
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds steady below 1.1800

EUR/USD moves sideways in a narrow channel below 1.1800 as the market volatility remains low ahead of the New Year holiday. On Tuesday, investors will pay close attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting.

GBP/USD retreats below 1.3500 as trading conditions remain thin

GBP/USD corrects lower after posting strong gains in the previous week and trades below 1.3500 on Monday. With the action in financial markets turning subdued following the Christmas holiday, however, the pair's losses remain limited.

Gold holds above $4,300 after profit taking kicked in

Gold retreats sharply from the record-peak it set at $4,550 and trades below $4,400, losing more than 3% on the day. Growing optimism about a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement and profit-taking ahead of the New Year holiday seem to be causing XAU/USD to stay under heavy bearish pressure.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP bulls regain strength

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple record roughly 3% gains on Monday, regaining strength mid-holiday season. Despite thin liquidity in the holiday season, BTC and major altcoins are regaining strength as US President Donald Trump pushes peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The technical outlook for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple gradually shifts bullish as selling pressure wanes.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).