XAU/USD outlook: Gold accelerates above $5200, on track for the seventh consecutive monthly gain

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

Gold price jumped in early US session on Friday after holding within a narrow range during Asian / European trading, as bull regained traction after three-day consolidation under new recovery high at $5249 (Feb 24).

Overall technical picture remains bullish, with today’s break above the upper boundary of triangle (daily chart) generating initial signal of bullish continuation (sustained break above $5249 peak is needed to confirm).

Today’s lift above $5200 (which capped the action in past couple of sessions) is positive signal, though we need to see a daily close above this level to verify signal.

However, daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen (in bullish configuration) turned sideways and 14-d momentum continues to descend and diverge from price action that warns of potential further headwinds bulls may face.

On the other hand, fundamentals continue to be supportive, as persisting fears of possible escalation of US -Iran tensions, the newest conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan and growing uncertainty over US tariffs, continue to fuel safe-haven demand.

Pictures on larger timeframes show firm bullish structure, with gold being on track for the fourth straight weekly and seventh consecutive monthly gain (metal gained around 9% in February).

Short-term action holds well above Fibo 61.8% retracement of $5298/$4402 correction which indicates that bulls continue to regain control after significant pullback and that corrective phase is heading towards its end.

Broken $5200 level reverted to initial support, followed by more significant points at $5171 (broken triangle’s upper boundary), $5141 (broken Fibo 61.8% which contained action in past three days) and $5100.

Res: 5249; 5300; 5350; 5400

Sup: 5200; 5141; 5100; 5045

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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