Indices rise but Oil slumps on ceasefire reports

Chris Beauchamp IG

Indices have begun the week on the front foot, but news of a ceasefire in Lebanon has weighed heavily oil prices, says Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at online trading platform IG.

Dow pushes to new highs

November saw the Dow breach 44,000 for the first time, and there is a very real possibility that the index will surpass 45,000 in the same month. Stocks received a boost on Friday on news that Trump had chosen Scott Bessent for the US Treasury, a reassuring sign for investors. Thanksgiving week is generally positive for US markets anyway, but they have an extra spring in their step as the holiday approaches. Reports of a possible ceasefire in Lebanon have bolstered risk appetite too, though it has done little for oil and gold, both of which seem poised for more losses.

FTSE 100 climbs

The past two weeks have helped repair a lot of the damage in the FTSE 100, which has continued its recovery from the 8000 low. Unlike US indices, the FTSE 100 is still some way off a new high, but with yields around the globe softening the index has recouped some of its lustre. So far the market isn’t reading too much consumer weakness into the Kingfisher figures, preferring to hope for general Christmas splurge.

Author

Chris Beauchamp

Chris Beauchamp has been with IG for four years, and in that time has become a regular commentator and analyst for the financial press and TV, with appearances on all the major financial channels as well as the BBC and Sky News.

AUD/USD defends 0.7000 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

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USD/JPY climbs back toward 158.00 after BoJ minutes amid firm USD

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Gold sheds 3%, eyeing $4,100 on renewed US-Iran risks

Gold is falling hard at the start of a new week, targeting $4,100 for the first time in eight weeks. Firming October Fed rate-hike bets, along with oil-driven inflation risks, keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs, helping the US Dollar hold firm, particularly after Trump rejected Iran's truce offer. These factors weigh heavily on the bullion.

Zcash risks a decline below $1,500 as bullish momentum eases

Zcash price hovers below $1,550 on Monday, extending losses after a 4% decline the previous day. Institutional interest in the privacy coin holds firm, recording over $35 million in inflows last week, while retail speculation takes a hit, with ZEC futures Open Interest down around 10% in 24 hours.

Data back in the driver’s seat this week

Markets will look for fresh evidence of a hot US economy from this week as September figures start to flow in. Upside surprises in jobs data could take rate hike pricing for the October FOMC above 20bp. It’s not our baseline though, and we expect some stabilisation with modest downside risks for USD in the coming days. We expect a hawkish hike by the RBA tomorrow.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.