Indian rupee opened at 68.17 after closing the previous session at 67.96 levels. The intra-day range is seen between 67.95-68.30 levels.
Steady payroll growth, wages rebound
US Non-farm payrolls increased by just 156,000 jobs last month, compared with market forecasts of 178,000, the Labor Department said on Friday. But investors focused on average hourly earnings, which increased 10 cents or 0.4 percent. That pushed the year-on-year increase in average hourly earnings to 2.9 percent, the largest increase since June 2009, from 2.5 percent in November.
Stronger Canadian jobs, trade data supported C$
The Canadian dollar pulled back to end barely stronger against its U.S. counterpart on Friday after touching its strongest in more than three weeks following surprisingly strong employment and trade data. It had hit C$1.3177, its strongest level since Dec. 14, in morning trade after Canada's economy unexpectedly added 53,700 jobs in December, and all of them full-time positions, and also posted its first trade surplus since September 2014.
India GDP growth may decelerate to 7.1% in FY17: CSO
India's economic growth is likely to decelerate to 7.1% in 2016-17 from 7.6% in the previous year, the statistics department said on Friday. The growth projection by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has been released a month before it was due to help the government prepare the budget, which also has been advanced by a month to 1 February.
Bonds
Indian government bonds follow rupee lower as U.S. jobs data strengthens bets of more Fed hikes in 2017, say traders. Benchmark note now at INR104.00, yielding 6.41%, against INR104.16 previous close. USD/INR rises to 68.20 from 67.96 previous close. India cut its GDP growth forecast to 7.1% from 7.0%-7.75% earlier for this fiscal. This could hit the bond as well as currency market. Benchmark yield pegged in 6.37%-6.42% band today.
Outlook
Intraday Trend: The USD/INR pair is likely to quote in the range of 67.95-68.30 levels.
Exporters are advised to book partially long term bookings near 68.25-68.30 levels. (They are suggested to discuss their positions with their respective advisors).
Importers were advised to cover their short term exposure near 67.70-67.80 levels. (They are suggested to discuss their positions with their respective advisors).
Short term range (7-15 days): 67.30-68.45
Medium term range (3-6 months): 66.90 – 70.50
Intraday view on Major Pairs
EURUSD-
The EURUSD pair fell sharply on Friday even after weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data. US dollar was supported mainly because of increase in average hourly earnings. In absence of major events from US and Europe, the pair is expected to trade in the tight range. The pair is likely to remain under pressure with expected intraday of 1.0460-1.0600 band.
| INTRADAY RANGE | SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) | MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) | ||||||
| Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend |
| 1.0460 | 1.0600 | Slightly Bullish | 1.00 | 1.0850 | Bearish | 1.00 | 1.1000 | Bearish |
GBPUSD-
On Friday, Sterling fell back against a dollar that was boosted by U.S. labour market data on Friday but still ended the week slightly higher, riding out nerves about the British government's preparations for Brexit talks due to start in March. The GBPUSD extended its losses in early Asia today after stronger momentum in the US dollar. In absence of major economic data from US and UK, the pair is expected to trade in choppy range of 1.2150-1.2320 band.
| INTRADAY RANGE | SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) | MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) | ||||||
| Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend |
| 1.2150 | 1.2320 | Slightly Bullish | 1.2080 | 1.2800 | Bearish | 1.1800 | 1.3020 | Bearish |
USDJPY-
The USDJPY pair gained sharply above 116.50 on stronger dollar on US labor data. Today, on observance of Coming-of-age day; the Japanese market will remain shut. Hence, the pair is expected to trade in narrow range of 117-118.20 band.
| INTRADAY RANGE | SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) | MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) | ||||||
| Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend |
| 117 | 118.20 | Slightly Bullish | 112.50 | 123 | Bullish | 109.50 | 126 | Bullish |
AUDUSD-
Data released today suggests that Australian building approvals rebounded in November following two months of significant declines. Earlier on Friday, the AUDUSD pair retraced back from daily highs as the greenback strengthened following the release of the US nonfarm payrolls report. Technically, the pair is expected to trade in the range of 0.7240-0.7330 band.
| INTRADAY RANGE | SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) | MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) | ||||||
| Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend |
| 0.7240 | 0.7330 | Slightly Bullish | 0.7150 | 0.7750 | Bearish | 0.7150 | 0.8150 | Bearish |
USDCAD-
Canadian dollar hit C$1.3177, its strongest level since Dec. 14, after Canada's economy unexpectedly added 53,700 jobs in December; all of them full-time positions, and also posted its first trade surplus since September 2014. Today, the pair bounced back after strength in the US dollar. Technically, the pair is expected to trade in the range of 1.3215-1.3315 band.
| INTRADAY RANGE | SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) | MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) | ||||||
| Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend |
| 1.3215 | 1.3315 | Slightly Bearish | 1.2980 | 1.3650 | Bullish | 1.2750 | 1.3850 | Bullish |
Gold-
Gold prices edged up in a technical rebound on Monday after one-month highs hit last week were undercut by the prospects of more interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve. Spot gold is still up nearly 5% from mid-December after touching 10-month lows that sparked higher demand on the physical side. Technically, the prices are expected to trade in the range of $1163-1181 band.
| INTRADAY RANGE | SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) | MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) | ||||||
| Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend |
| 1165 | 1181 | Bullish | 1070 | 1250 | Bearish | 1050 | 1380 | Bullish |
Crude:
Oil prices fell on Monday as increased exports from Iran undermined efforts by other oil producers to curb a global fuel supply overhang and as U.S. drillers increased activity for a 10th straight week. Traders said the lower prices were a result of rising exports from Iran that come just as other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut supplies in an effort to end a global glut. Technically, the prices are likely to take resistance near $54.40 levels.
| INTRADAY RANGE | SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) | MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) | ||||||
| Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend |
| 52.80 | 54.30 | Slightly Bullish | 45.00 | 57.00 | Bullish | 42.00 | 60.00 | Bullish |
Dollar Index:
On Friday, the dollar rose against its major crosses despite weaker-than-expected payrolls number in December. Data released by the Bureau of labor statistics showed that the economy added 156,000 jobs in December compared to 204,000 jobs in the previous month. Today no major economic data is expected to release from the US and this could keep the volatility low for the greenback.
| INTRADAY RANGE | SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) | MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) | ||||||
| Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend | Support | Resistance | Trend |
| 101.10 | 102.50 | Slightly Bearish | 99.20 | 105.50 | Bullish | 96.80 | 105 | Bullish |
This report has been prepared by IFA Global. IFA Global shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. IFA Global nor any of directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be held liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. No liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising (whether direct or consequential) from any use of the information contained in this report. This statement, prepared specifically at the addressee(s) request is for information contained in this statement. All market prices, service taxes and other levies are subject to change without notice. Also the value, income, appreciation, returns, yield of any of the securities or any other financial instruments mentioned in this statement are based on current market conditions and as per the last details available with us and subject to change. The levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation can change. The securities / units / other instruments mentioned in this report may or may not be live at the time of statement generation. Please note, however, that some data has been derived from sources that we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Please review this information for accuracy as IFA Global cannot be responsible for omitted or misstated data. IFA Global is not liable for any delay in the receipt of this statement. This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject IFA Global to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The information given in this report is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. IFA Global reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. However, IFA Global is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Nevertheless, IFA Global is committed to providing independent and transparent information to its client and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Neither IFA Global nor any of its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The information provided in these report remains, unless otherwise stated, the copyright of IFA Global. All layout, design, original artwork, concepts and other Intellectual Properties, remains the property and copyright IFA Global and may not be used in any form or for any purpose whatsoever by any party without the express written permission of the copyright holders.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.