In Africa too, the reconfiguration of global trade is benefiting China
Africa’s trade deficit with China widens
Since the beginning of the year, the resumption of the trade war between the United States and China has led the latter to redirect its exports in record time. On average over April to July, while Chinese exports to the US contracted by 23% year-on-year (yoy) in value terms, those to Africa increased by 34%, far more than those to ASEAN countries (17%) and Europe (7%).
For Africa, such an acceleration in imports from China is not unprecedented and should not lead to protectionist measures in the short term. In the absence of a developed local industry, increased imports from China can accompany economic development. In Tanzania and Côte d'Ivoire, which are among the largest contributors to the increase in imports of Chinese goods since March 2025, GDP growth is expected to exceed 6% in 2025, driven by investment. Furthermore, the rise in imports of low-cost Chinese consumer goods is contributing to the anticipated decline in inflation in sub-Saharan Africa (13% in 2025 compared to 18% last year). These disinflationary effects are already visible in Nigeria, the continent's leading importer of Chinese goods. The decline in inflation in Nigeria, from 24.2% yoy in March 2025 to 20.1% in August, coincides with a sharp increase in imports of consumer goods from China.
As a result, Africa's trade deficit with China has widened rapidly (see chart). This trend is likely to continue in the coming months. On the one hand, imports are expected to keep rising, driven by the still strong price competitiveness of Chinese goods. On the other hand, some African countries, including South Africa, may be compelled to redirect some of their commodity exports from China to the US in order to secure trade agreements with the Trump administration.
Author
BNP Paribas Team
BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.
