IMF releases new growth outlook

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

In Slovakia, average real monthly wage declined by -0.8% y/y in August, while industrial sales dropped by -5.5% y/y.
Current account in Czechia posted a deficit of CZK -0.67 billion in August, while in Poland current account deficit reached PLN -2147 million in August.
In Romania, year-to-date current account deficit was EUR -18789million.
Today, Romania releases industrial output growth in August.
Slovakia, Poland and Croatia will publish final inflation numbers in September.

Economic developments

The IMF in its new growth outlook shares the good news that the negative impact of tariffs on the global economy is at the modest end of the range. The IMF projects that global growth is expected at 3.2 percent this year and 3.1 percent next year. Despite expectations for relatively solid economic expansion, conclusion that the shock triggered by the tariff surge had no effect on global growth would be both premature and incorrect, however. As far as region is concerned, IMF expects improvement of the growth prospects in most of the CEE countries in 2026. An acceleration of GDP growth in 2026 is projected in Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Serbia. The other three countries (Croatia, Czechia and Poland) should sustain solid pace of growth from 2025. Our growth forecast is quite similar to the IMF’s in Croatia, Poland and Slovenia. We see Czechia and Hungary growing marginally higher compared to the IMF, but the difference is rather small. In case of Romania and Serbia economic development should be stronger in our assessment. Only in case of Slovakia our growth forecast is lower compared to IMF’s projections.

Market movements

CEE currencies remain slightly stronger against the euro this week. Poland’s central banker Dabrowski sees the space for further monetary easing if inflation trend does not change. Although interest rate cut does not have to happen at the November’s meeting, he sees terminal rate between 3.5% and 4% at the end of 2026. The long-term yields have declined since the beginning of the week across the region.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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