Hurricane Helene and Milton challenge the Southeast regional economy

Evaluating the costs of Helene and Milton

Although Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton have now passed, the social, environmental, demographic and economic damages are still being tallied. The most acute economic impacts are likely to be felt in the near term, as the repercussions of the storms weigh heavily on the localities most effected. Over the longer run, rebuilding efforts and an influx of government aid should help bring about a recovery. That said, the hurricanes hit wide swaths of the region not accustomed to dealing with storms of such magnitude. The substantial public assistance already announced is an encouraging sign that the restoration process has already begun, however the potential out-migration of residents, businesses and investment capital casts a high degree of uncertainty on the timetable for recovery.

Hurricanes Helene and Milton batter the Southeast

Hurricane Helene breached Florida’s Gulf Coast late in the evening on Thursday, September 26 as a Category 4 hurricane. The storm was similar in size to Hurricane Katrina, stretching 400 miles from end to end. Traveling at 30mph and with sustained winds reaching 140mph, Helene was the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Big Bend region since 1851. The storm system had formed just two days prior in the Caribbean Sea, giving Sunshine State residents little notice. After making landfall near Keaton Beach, Fl, Helene brought near-record storm surge that reached as high as 15 feet in some Gulf Coast communities. Helene went on to travel 500 miles up through Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee, softening as it went but bringing heavy rainfall and flooding in its wake. In Florida, Helene was followed just two weeks later by Hurricane Milton, which battered the Gulf Coast as a Category 3 hurricane and produced more than 100 tornado warnings in a single day.

Hurricane Helene’s most devastating effects were felt in the Blue Ridge Mountain communities of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. The regions were unprepared for the historic combination of heavy rain, flooding and mudslides that would occur, especially after the soil was already saturated by record-setting rains just days prior. When all was said and done, Helene dumped as much as 30 inches of rain in parts of North Carolina over a three-day time span. French Broad River flowing near Asheville swelled to never-before-seen levels, leading roads, homes and businesses to be swept away by raging flood waters. Helene ultimately became one of the deadliest inland hurricanes on record. The death toll as of October 9 numbers 238 individuals across six states.

The social, environmental, demographic and economic damages are still being tallied and will likely take years to be fully determined. That said, several firms have released initial economic estimates. According to CoreLogic, Hurricane Helene likely resulted in between $30.5 billion and $47.5 billion in losses from property damage and business interruption. Up to $17.5 billion of this range amounts to damage to insured properties; the remaining $30 billion of damage represents uninsured losses. CoreLogic found that the bulk of wind damage was to residential properties in the Southeastern United States, however losses stretch all the way up to Pennsylvania and New York. CoreLogic's initial estimates for Hurricane Milton suggest that total wind and flood loss could amount to between $21 billion and $34 billion across Central Florida.

Download The Full Special Commentary