How will markets react to the monthly jobs Friday in the US

We present our thought process on "value" which is what we use in any timeframe that we trade ourselves versus price alone which, although important, serves only as a marketing and advertising tool for any instrument. 

Market Profile summary for the Emini S&P futures

In yesterday’s RTH squeeze higher [from about 2:40 pm in the afternoon and the ES ticker at 4160], we developed an “excess high” on low volume clocking a high of 4197.25 and pulling back a tad bit into settlement to 4194.25. The fact that we did not lack the excess high in that hour and a half move higher tells me that the bottom of that range should work nicely as support into the monthly unemployment numbers due in less than an hour as I am writing this report a tad bit early today at 7:45 am EST. Market participation in the ON session did not venture to push this lower and therefore we work with a small gap higher as we tick right above 4204.25 at this time. Initial support, therefore, sits right at the middle of that squeeze and will now sit at around 4179.25. Today, the important thing is the news, and a blowout unemployment number could make participants wary of a likely Fed tapering of treasury note buybacks in the fear of the economy overheating as Treasury Secretary, Yellen stated earlier in the week causing a liquidation break.

Possible scenarios

The scenarios we put out every day on here aren’t based of price which, although important, is merely an advertising/ marketing tool for instruments. We attempt to align conversations on “value” while equating them to “price-levels” [which remain important as well] in order to make them actionable for short-term participants in the futures markets.

• Off the news in the premarket today, look for the futures to more than likely find support at 4179.25 but ahead of that, verify if we hold 4195.00 and if that area holds well into the news, expect us not to visit that initial support area at all and just grind on higher.

• For those indulging in counter-trend trades, allow for the squeeze to pan out past 4210 and past the previous highs [4211] at least into 4225.50 before considering the counter-trend short trade. Do not linger withholding the shorts if you do happen to take it at those levels and take profits in cyclical moves lower. Keep position sizes small on this first Friday of the month.

• It is possible for us to visit the bottom of that excess high at 4179.25 which qualifies for a good long trade entry.

Key levels

30-Minute Chart