How to trade the US Retail Sales with EUR/USD

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.25 deviation (0.03%) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: $1.2000

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.25 or less (0.03% or lower in actual terms), the EUR/USD may go up reaching a range of 38 pips in the first 15 minutes and 68 pips in the following 4 hours.

The $1.1915 was a low point in January and temporarily held the pair back on its way down. The round $1.2000 level is of high psychological importance and also capped the pair on May 14th. $1.2055 was the April 30th low point looming above. 

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +1.75 deviation (0.91%) [SELL Pair]

• Key Support Level: $1.1822

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of +1.75 or higher (0.91% or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 30 pips in the first 15 minutes and 82 pips in the following 4 hours.

The $1.1822 level is the new 2018 low seen in early May. Further down, $1.1715 was a stepping stone on the way up in late 2017 and $1.1610 is the next level to watch. 

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

The US economy is centered around consumption, making the Retail Sales report a key indicator. The Control Group is used for GDP calculations, eyed by the Fed, and therefore a major market mover. 

For the US Dollar, the number is also important to determine if the recent move down in the US Dollar was only a correction or a more significant change of course. 

See: Dollar downfall or a resumption of the rally? Retail Sales to decide

In the last five releases, the EUR/USD moved, on average, 34 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 67 pips in the following 4 hours.

The previous release had no surprise in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD only reached a 23 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 35 pips 4 hours thereafter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.