How to trade the US GDP with EUR/USD

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.88 deviation (3.88 ) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.1750

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.88 or less(3.88 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 28 pips in the first 15 minutes and 72 pips in the following 4 hours. 

1.1680 capped the pair in late June. 1.1750 held the pair down in mid-July and other attempts also got close to this level. 1.1795 was a swing high in early July.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.68 deviation (4.26 ) [SELL Pair]

  Key Support Level: 1.1508

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.68 or higher(4.26 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 27  pips in the first 15 minutes and 83 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1615 was a swing low in mid-July. 1.1575 was a low point around the same period of time. The ultimate line of support is 1.1508, the lowest point in 2018.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

GDP growth for Q2 is expected to be tremendous. Projections were high, to begin with. Then came a leak from the White House raised expectations to even higher levels. The first release has a stronger impact than the previous ones. 

Preview: After the Trump leak, look beyond the headline number

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 14 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 40 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.81 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 12 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 23 pips 4 hours thereafter. 

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.