How to trade the US GDP with EUR/USD

The GDP release provides an overview of the economy and tends to move markets.
The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
The EURUSD moved, on average, 14 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 40 pips in the following 4 hours.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.89 deviation (1.97 ) [BUY Pair]
Key Resistance Level: 1.1730

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.89 or less(1.97 or lower in actual terms), the EUR/USD may go up reaching a range of 28 pips in the first 15 minutes and 74 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1650 capped the pair on several occasions during June. 1.1730 provided support when the EUR/USD traded on higher ground. 1.1850 that served as a high point on June 14th.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.68 deviation (2.36 ) [SELL Pair]

Key Support Level: 1.1540

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.68 or higher(2.36 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 27 pips in the first 15 minutes and 83 pips in the following 4 hours.

The significant support line to watch is at the June 15th, and 19th lows of 1.1540 and stronger support is at 1.1510 which is the lowest level since July 2017. Even lower, 1.1480 is notable for serving as an essential line last summer.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

EUR USD daily chart June 27 2018 data coming

More data

The third and final release of US GDP for Q1 is expected to confirm the 2.2% annualized growth rate reported in the previous publication. However, changes can certainly happen and move markets which fear of a slowdown amid trade tariffs.

See US GDP Preview: The good enough growth will likely be confirmed

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 14 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 40 pips in the following 4 hours.

The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.40 regarding relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 14 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 55 pips 4 hours after that.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

GBP/USD drops below 1.3550 on geopolitical tensions, hawkish Fed bets

GBP/USD trades with mild losses below 1.3550 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. The US Dollar recovers some ground amid ongoing Middle East tensions and hawkish expectations around the Fed's interest rate outlook, weighing on the pair ahead of US data releases.

EUR/USD stays below 1.1600 ahead of US data

EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce and trades below 1.1600 on Tuesday. The data from the Eurozone showed that the annual HICP inflation rose to 3.3% in August from 2.9% in July, matching the market expectation, while the core HICP inflation edged lower to 2.4% from 2.5% in this period. In the second half of the day, JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be featured in the US economic calendar.

Gold extends reversal below $4,400 on hawkish Fed repricing

XAU/USD extends its reversal below $4,400, posting a nearly 7% decline from last week's highs. Precious metals struggle this week as markets reprice a Fed rate hike in September.

Ripple, Cardano, and Dogecoin show weakness – Crucial EMAs in focus

Ripple, Cardano, and Dogecoin remain weak after double-digit losses last week, testing their crucial Exponential Moving Averages for immediate support. The technical outlook warns of further weakness in the prices of XRP, ADA, and DOGE as bullish momentum eases.

US JOLTS Job Openings set to show a steady labor market

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has a busy week, releasing relevant employment data. It will start on Tuesday with the publication of the July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) at 14:00 GMT. The JOLTS report is expected to show job openings stood at 7.3 million in July.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.