How to trade the US GDP with EUR/USD

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +1.24 deviation [BUY Pair]
• Key Support Level: $1.2000

If it comes out at higher than expected with a deviation of +1.24 or higher, the pair may go down reaching a range of 26 pips in the first 15 minutes and 69 pips in the following 4 hours.

The 2017 peak of $1.2090 is a pivotal line. The very round $1.2000 level is closely watched and serves as a line of support. Further below, the early January trough of $1.1920 awaits.

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -2.14 deviation [SELL Pair]
• Fundamental Resistance Level: $1.2210

If it comes out lower than expected at a deviation of -2.14 or less, the EUR/USD may go up reaching a range of 24 pips in the first 15 minutes and 68 pips in the following 4 hours.

$1.2155 was the March 1st low. Further above, $1.2210 was a swing high in late April and low early in the month. Above, $1.2240 was a high point in late March. 

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

In the last five releases, the EUR/USD moved, on average, 17 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 51 pips in the next 4 hours. 

The previous release had a positive surprise of +0.68 regarding deviation, and the EUR/USD reached a 16 pip tang in the first 15 minutes and a range of 71 pips 4 hours after that.

The US economy has likely slowed down in the first quarter of the year, as it often happens. An annualized growth rate of 2.3% is projected after 2.9% in Q4 2017 and levels above 3% in Q2 and Q3. The data feeds into the Fed's decision making.

See: US GDP Preview: Slower growth unlikely to slow the USD, three scenarios

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.