- The first release of US GDP for Q1 2018 is a top-tier market mover that has a considerable impact on the EUR/USD.
- The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
- The pair moved, on average, 17 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 51 pips in the next 4 hours.
Selling EUR/USD Scenario
- Tradable Positive Trigger: +1.24 deviation [BUY Pair]
- Key Support Level: $1.2000
If it comes out at higher than expected with a deviation of +1.24 or higher, the pair may go down reaching a range of 26 pips in the first 15 minutes and 69 pips in the following 4 hours.
The 2017 peak of $1.2090 is a pivotal line. The very round $1.2000 level is closely watched and serves as a line of support. Further below, the early January trough of $1.1920 awaits.
Buying EUR/USD Scenario
- Tradable Negative Trigger: -2.14 deviation [SELL Pair]
- Fundamental Resistance Level: $1.2210
If it comes out lower than expected at a deviation of -2.14 or less, the EUR/USD may go up reaching a range of 24 pips in the first 15 minutes and 68 pips in the following 4 hours.
$1.2155 was the March 1st low. Further above, $1.2210 was a swing high in late April and low early in the month. Above, $1.2240 was a high point in late March.
EUR/USD Levels on the Chart
In the last five releases, the EUR/USD moved, on average, 17 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 51 pips in the next 4 hours.
The previous release had a positive surprise of +0.68 regarding deviation, and the EUR/USD reached a 16 pip tang in the first 15 minutes and a range of 71 pips 4 hours after that.
The US economy has likely slowed down in the first quarter of the year, as it often happens. An annualized growth rate of 2.3% is projected after 2.9% in Q4 2017 and levels above 3% in Q2 and Q3. The data feeds into the Fed's decision making.
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
Foreign exchange (forex) trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The risk grows as the leverage is higher.
investment objectives, risk appetite and the trader’ level of experience should be carefully weighed before entering the forex market. There is always a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment / deposit, so you should not invest money which is which it can’t afford to lose. The high risk that is involved with currency trading must be known to you. Please ask for advice from an independent financial advisor before entering this market.
Any comments made on Forex Crunch or on other sites that have received permission to republish the content originating on Forex Crunch reflect the opinions of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any of Forex Crunch’s authorized authors. Forex Crunch has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: Omissions and errors may occur.
Any news, analysis, opinion, price quote or any other information contained on Forex Crunch and permitted re-published content should be taken as general market commentary. This is by no means investment advice. Forex Crunch will not accept liability for any damage, loss, including without limitation to, any profit loss, which may either arise directly or indirectly from use of such information.