How to trade the US GDP growth with EUR/USD

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.88 deviation (3.78) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.1745

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.88 or less (3.78% or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 28 pips in the first 15 minutes and 72 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1750 was a quadruple top in July and is a key level of resistance. 1.795 capped the pair early in July. 1.1850 was a swing high in mid-June.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.68 deviation (4.26 ) [SELL Pair]

• Key Support Level: 1.1665

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.68 or higher (4.17% or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 27 pips in the first 15 minutes and 83 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1665 separated ranges in August. Further down, 1.1595 was a stepping stone on the way up. 1.1540 cushioned the pair before the recent rise.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

The first release of Q2 GDP came out at 4.1%, the fastest growth in four years. Preparations for the trade tariffs served as a factor that pushed growth higher. Q3 already carries slightly lower expectations. 

See: US GDP Preview: A minor downgrade will not deter the Fed, export component is key

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 15 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 41 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had no surprise, and the EURUSD reached a 17 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 40 pips 4 hours thereafter. 

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.