How to trade the US Durable Goods Orders with EUR/USD

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.67 deviation (99.30 ) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.1795

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.08 or less(-0.07 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 26 pips in the first 15 minutes and 76 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1750 limited the pair's advance earlier in the week and served as an initial resistance line. Further up, 1.1790 held the EUR/USD down in early July, and 1.1850 was the swing high in mid-June.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.62 deviation (0.83 ) [SELL Pair]

  Key Support Level: 1.1615

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.62 or higher(0.83 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 17  pips in the first 15 minutes and 63 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1615 served as a support line earlier in July. Next down is 1.1575 which was a swing low last week and finally, we find 1.1508, the lowest level in 2018.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

Durable goods orders are a measure of investment. Volatility on the headline makes the core figure, the one excluding transportation, more important. The data also feeds into GDP, yet GDP has been somewhat skewed by Trump's leaks.

More: Durable Goods Orders Preview: Trump's leak lifts expectations

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 12 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 39 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative surprise of -1.51 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 12 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 40 pips 4 hours thereafter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.