How to trade the US Durable Goods Orders with EUR/USD

  • The Core Durable Goods orders is an important market mover and the last significant event before the weekend.
  • The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities to both the upside and the downside on this event.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Positive Trigger: + 1.70 deviation [SELL Pair]
  • Key Support Level: 1.2240

If it comes out at higher than expected with a deviation of +1.70 or higher, the pair may go down reaching a range of 48 pips in the first 15 minutes and 63 pips in the following 4 hours.

Support levels are to be found approximately at 1.2260 and 1.2240 accordingly to the Confluence Indicator.  Vestiges of demand can be seen around 1.2200 and below at 1.2170, based on aggregated trading positions from FXStreet's dedicated contributors.

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.90 deviation [BUY Pair]
  • Key Resistance Level: 1.2385

If it comes out lower than expected at a deviation of -1.90 or less, the EUR/USD may up reaching a range of 22 pips in the first 15 minutes and 44 pips in the following 4 hours.

On the upside, there are clusters of resistance at 1.2360 and 1.2388.From a positioning perspective, supply is noted at 1.2385 and above. 

Only 13% of EUR-based pairs are in bullish mode against a basket of 20 world currencies accordingly to the EUR-Bullish Percentage Index. As such, a release which surprises the market with a negative trigger (USD negative) may lead to a stronger up move in the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

In the last five releases, the EUR/USD moved, on average, 21 pips in the 15 minutes after the announcement and 62 pips in the 4 hours after the release.

The previous release had a surprise of -1.31 measured regarding deviation, and the EUR/USD reached the 66 pips of volatility 15 minutes after the publication and 125 pips in the following four hours.

The Durable Goods Orders report is eyed for trends in investment. The Federal Reserve sets its policy for the medium term, and changes in investment now have an impact on that time horizon. The data also feeds into the overall economy, the GDP for Q1 in this case. So far, data has shown slower growth in this quarter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

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