How to trade the US ADP NFP with EUR/USD

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.66 deviation (174.68 ) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.1695

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.66 or less(174.68 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 26 pips in the first 15 minutes and 74 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1630 was a stubborn peak in early September and also beforehand. 1.1695 capped the pair in late August. 1.1735 was a swing high in mid-August.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.82 deviation (208.82 ) [SELL Pair]

  Key Support Level: 1.1530.

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.82 or higher(208.82 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 24  pips in the first 15 minutes and 64 pips in the following 4 hours. 

1.1585 was a support line in late August. 1.1530 is a double-bottom from late August and early September. 1.1495 was a swing low in mid-August.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 11 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 40 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a positive surprise of 1.48 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 5 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 28 pips 4 hours thereafter. 

The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls provided an early insight into hiring in the private sector and is used as a hint for the NFP. Figures have been around the 200,000 area for quite some time.

More: ADP NFP + ISM Non-Manufacturing Preview: Data are indicative not only for the NFP

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.