- The first estimate of UK GDP for Q1 2018 is a major market mover that impacts the GBP/USD.
- The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
- The pair moved, on average, 29 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 70 pips in the next 4 hours.
Buying GBP/USD Scenario
-
Tradable Positive Trigger: +2.5 deviation [BUY Pair]
-
Key Resistance Level: $1.4000
If it comes out at higher than expected with a deviation of +2.5 or higher, the pair may go up reaching a range of 53 pips in the first 15 minutes and 98 pips in the following 4 hours.
The round $1.4000 level capped the pair in mid-April and coincides with the 50-day Simple Moving Average. $1.4050 was a swing high in February and $1.4150 provided support to the pair in April.
Selling GBP/USD Scenario
-
Tradable Negative Trigger: -2.5 deviation [SELL Pair]
-
Key Support Level: $1.3920
If it comes out lower than expected at a deviation of -2.5 or less, the GBP/USD may go down reaching a range of 31 pips in the first 15 minutes and 66 pips in the following 4 hours.
$1.3920 provided support in late April. It is closely followed by $1.3890 which served as support in March. Next, down the line, we find $1.3850 and $1.3770.
GBP/USD Levels on the Chart
-636603202527435808.png)
More data
In the last five releases, the GBP/USD moved, on average, 29 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 70 pips in the next 4 hours.
The previous release had no surprise in terms of deviation but nevertheless, the GBP/USD reached a 24 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 51 pips 4 hours thereafter.
The UK economy lagged behind its peers in 2017 and the first estimate for the first quarter of the year provides an interesting insight into how the economy is doing with less than one year to Brexit. The economy is expected to grow at a quarterly rate of 0.4%, repeating the level from Q4 2017.
See UK Q1 GDP Preview: Even with GDP rising above potential, the growth rate is the lowest in G7
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD risks a deeper drop in the short term
AUD/USD rapidly left behind Wednesday’s decent advance and resumed its downward trend on the back of the intense buying pressure in the greenback, while mixed results from the domestic labour market report failed to lend support to AUD.
EUR/USD extends its downside below 1.0650 on hawkish Fed remarks
The EUR/USD extends its downside around 1.0640 after retreating from weekly peaks of 1.0690 on Friday during the early Asian session. The hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials provide some support to the US Dollar.
Gold price edges higher on risk-off mood hawkish Fed signals
Gold prices advanced late in the North American session on Thursday, underpinned by heightened geopolitical risks involving Iran and Israel. Federal Reserve officials delivered hawkish messages, triggering a jump in US Treasury yields, which boosted the Greenback.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: All eyes on BTC as CNN calls halving the ‘World Cup for Bitcoin’
Bitcoin price remains the focus of traders and investors ahead of the halving, which is an important event expected to kick off the next bull market. Amid conflicting forecasts from analysts, an international media site has lauded the halving and what it means for the industry.
Is the Biden administration trying to destroy the Dollar?
Confidence in Western financial markets has already been shaken enough by the 20% devaluation of the dollar over the last few years. But now the European Commission wants to hand Ukraine $300 billion seized from Russia.