Traders are increasingly bearish on treasuries as measured by bets on US treasury futures.

A per CME Fedwatch as of October 25, 2021, traders see a minimum of two rate hikes in 2022. 


  • No Hikes: 6.2%
  • One Hike: 23.3%
  • Two Hikes: 33.4%
  • Three Hikes: 24.3%
  • Four Hikes: 10.0%
  • Five Hikes: 2.4%
  • Six Hikes: 0.3%

Odds On

  • At least two hikes weighs in at 70.4%. 
  • At least three hikes weighs in at 34.57%

The expectation appears to be between 2 and 3 hikes. 

Four or more seems outright preposterous. 

Soft Patch in the Third Quarter or Does a Recession Start?

On October 20, I asked Soft Patch in the Third Quarter or Does a Recession Start?

This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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