How many times will the Fed hike interest rates in 2022?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc

Traders are increasingly bearish on treasuries as measured by bets on US treasury futures.

A per CME Fedwatch as of October 25, 2021, traders see a minimum of two rate hikes in 2022.

Expectations

No Hikes: 6.2%
One Hike: 23.3%
Two Hikes: 33.4%
Three Hikes: 24.3%
Four Hikes: 10.0%
Five Hikes: 2.4%
Six Hikes: 0.3%

Odds On

At least two hikes weighs in at 70.4%.
At least three hikes weighs in at 34.57%

The expectation appears to be between 2 and 3 hikes.

Four or more seems outright preposterous.

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Author

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's

Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc

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