EUR/USD consolidates in a calm start to a data-packed week

EUR/USD steadies around 1.1865 with markets at half-throttle.
Eurozone Industrial Production is expected to show a significant reversal in September.
Soft US CPI data seen on Friday are acting as headwinds for the USD recovery.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, holding steady around 1.1865 at the time of writing. Trading volumes have remained subdued in Asia, with holidays in Japan and most Asian countries, and Wall Street will also be closed for President's Day.

The pair appreciated about 0.4% last week, but failed to draw any significant support on Friday, after the release of softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which allowed the Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease borrowing costs further, to boost a stalled labour market.

In the Eurozone, on Monday, Industrial Production is expected to show a significant decline in December and might provide some guidance for the pair ahead of a busy data week. The weekly economic calendar includes the release of the Fed's latest meeting minutes, business activity figures from the US and the EU, and the key US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

Technical Analysis

The 4-hour chart shows the EUR/USD hovering above the rising trendline from mid-January lows now at 1.1855, which, together with the February 11 low, at 1.1833, is providing support to the pair.

Indicators are neutral to negative. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits fractionally below the zero line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands right below 50, reflecting balanced momentum.

Below the mentioned 1.1833, the next target is the early February lows at the 1.1775 area. Oyop yhre ipside, the 38.2% Fibonacci tertacement of the late January reversal is holding bulls for now at 1.1890, and closing the path towards last week's highs at 1.1925.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)

The Industrial Production index, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, measures changes in the price-adjusted output of industry. It is a widely-followed indicator to gauge the strength in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Economic Indicator

Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)

The Industrial Production is released by the Eurostat. It shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. Usually, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the EUR, while low industrial production is seen as a negative sentiment (or bearish).

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