Gold repeating 1979 price action, here is the trade

While many say ‘this time is different’, I only partly agree. Gold is repeating the 1979 price action almost perfectly. In 1979 gold had a surge, then a long base of consolidation, then a final parabolic surge. This put in a major top that would last for decades. In 2025, gold surged early in the year, consolidated sideways, and since then has made a parabolic surge. The same pattern has formed, almost to a ‘T’.

The commonalities do not end there. The surge in 1979 lasted for 9 weeks. This means, every week for nine straight, gold went higher. This latest surge in gold has lasted 9 weeks as well. Following the 1979 ninth weekly surge, gold sold sharply. Gold is beginning to sell sharply here as well.

The price action is almost identical to 1979…

What makes this time different?

In 1979, Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volker was raising interest rates to combat inflation. Debt-to-GDP was just 32%. The U.S. Dollar as a reserve currency was getting stronger during this period, not weaker. In 2025, interest rates are being cut, U.S. debt has skyrocketed to 130% of GDP, and de-dollarization has started.

The outcome?

In 1979, gold put in a high and corrected 71%. In 2025 into 2026, gold should pull back, but possibly only 15%-20% before resuming its uptrend.