Gold remains supported by mixed Fed signals and rising global tensions

Gold (XAUUSD) is holding steady as markets react to conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve and rising global tensions. Fed commentary remains split, with some officials leaning toward cuts and others defending the existing rate stance. This policy divide has kept the US Dollar range-bound, offering mild support to gold. At the same time, escalating geopolitical risks continue to support safe-haven demand. These factors have helped gold maintain its broader uptrend despite short-term consolidation.

Gold maintains strength on mixed Fed outlook and rising global tensions

Gold remains stable, showing limited reaction to strength in the US Dollar. After a strong surge, the Dollar is now struggling as policy signals from the Fed remain unclear. New York Fed President John Williams hinted at the possibility of rate cuts, describing the current policy stance as only “modestly restrictive.” This prompted investors to raise their expectations for a December rate cut, now priced at a 67% probability. In response, demand for non-yielding assets like gold found temporary support, helping the metal hold its ground.

At the same time, hawkish remarks from Fed officials have prevented a deeper Dollar pullback. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized the need to keep rates steady, pointing to ongoing inflation concerns. Her comments supported the Dollar near its recent highs, maintaining pressure on gold. This divergence within the Fed has added uncertainty to the policy outlook and limited gold’s ability to gain momentum.

In parallel, geopolitical tensions continue to offer background support for gold. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified, with drone attacks from Ukraine and new territorial advances by Russian forces. At the same time, the U.S.-backed 28-point peace proposal remains unresolved, adding to the uncertainty. These developments preserve gold’s safe-haven appeal, although gains are tempered by a rebound in global equities.

Gold maintains uptrend with strong support and bullish breakout patterns

The gold chart below shows a well-established uptrend, anchored by a long-term ascending trendline. Drawn from the late 2024 lows, this trendline has acted as reliable support throughout each corrective phase. Even during consolidation periods, gold consistently respected this structure, rebounding off the line and maintaining its broader upward trend.

Moreover, the chart shows a sequence of bullish breakouts emerging from well-defined consolidation zones. A key breakout occurred in early 2025, as gold pushed through resistance and gained momentum. Another, sharper rally unfolded in August 2025, driving prices toward the $4,400 area before settling into a sideways consolidation. Each move was preceded by compression patterns, outlined with dashed red lines, which now appear to be forming once again.

Currently, gold is forming another consolidation just below the $4,400 resistance. This pattern resembles a bullish continuation setup, with declining highs and stable lows suggesting tightening range behavior. The price remains above the rising trendline, confirming that the longer-term structure is still intact. A breakout above the red dashed resistance could trigger another sharp upward leg, potentially targeting higher zones.

Gold outlook: Strong support and global risks point to more upside

Gold continues to trade within a strong uptrend, supported by persistent geopolitical risks and an uncertain Fed policy outlook. While mixed signals from U.S. central bankers limit immediate upside, steady consolidation patterns and firm technical support suggest continued strength. As long as gold holds above its rising trendline and external pressures remain unresolved, the setup favors further upside in the near term.