Gold records new high at $3,791 on safe haven flows as Fed speech looms

Gold continues to extend bullish rally smashing multiple resistance as macro factors add tail wind to already bullish momentum that recorded fresh All Time High at $3791 without any recognizable retracement or pullback trapping most short sellers in its stride.

Lets take a look at what's driving Gold crazy.

Fundamental drivers

1. Fresh Record High-

Gold keeps setting one record high after another extending gains to $3791 as Bulls eyeing next immediate 178.6% Fibonacci extension $3798

The rally is fuelled by expectations of Fed rate cuts as early as October followed by December, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.

2. US Dollar & Yields-

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly weaker, aiding the surge in gold.

Treasury yields are under pressure as markets price in dovish Fed policy.

3. Central Bank Demand-

Persistent central bank purchases (China, India, Türkiye and Emerging Markets) continue to provide strong underlying demand.

4. ETF & Investment Flows-

ETF inflows remain steady, showing institutional appetite.

5. Risk Sentiment-

Safe-haven appeal remains strong due to geopolitical tensions and slowing global growth outlook.

Upcoming economic data on Services and Manufacturing PMI are closely awaited for further clues.

Markets await speech by Federal Reserve Chairman J Powell.

Technical drivers

1. Current Price Action

Gold has extended bullish momentum recording new high at $3791 and next resistance sits at $3798.

Gold is in a steep bullish trend; however, overbought conditions warn of pullbacks though only a mild pullback has been witnessed to test $3778 followed by return to $3788

If Gold breaks below $3878, next downside retracement may come at $3758 below which further decline may expose $3748-$3738-$3728

2. Resistance Levels

3791 – immediate high, next resistance $3798.

3800/3820 – psychological + next upside target.

3850-3880 – extended bullish objective if momentum continues.

3. Support Levels

3758/3748 – first intraday support zone and local demand zone that triggered a consolidated breakout.

3728/3710 – stronger support, former resistance turned support.

3660 – major breakout base and key structural support.

4. Indicators

RSI reading on 4 Hourly time frame 81 indicates overbought conditions but bullish trend remains intact.

RSI reading on Monthly time frame 89 indicates extremely overbought conditions and warns of an impending price correction early or mid next month.

5. Trend Bias

Intraday: Bullish above 3758.

Short-term: Bullish above 3728.