Gold
There is still a lack of conviction running through the gold market. After Friday’s bear candle there was an opportunity to be decisive, but this is a market unable to take a view right now. We have been (and continue to be) medium term negative on gold, given the run of key lower highs and lower lows over recent months. Rallies remain a chance to sell. However, support around $1445/$1450 is building as an area that remains intact over recent weeks. Given the importance of the tariffs decision in the coming days, we do not expect gold to take any decisive direction (unless the Fed throws a massive curve ball). If the US decides to not implement tariffs this would be risk positive and gold negative. A close below $1445 opens $1380/$1400 again. Key resistance around $1480/$1484 is building, with the top of a downtrend channel around $1488 today.
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