Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD under modest pressure ahead of central banks, war clarity

XAU/USD Current price: $4,681

• Central banks’ monetary policy announcements take center stage this week.
• The Middle East war continues to shape the market sentiment.
• XAU/USD turned marginally bearish in the near term, holds within familiar levels.

Spot Gold trades with a soft tone on Monday, still stuck to familiar levels. The precious metal changes hands in the $4,680 price zone in the American session, after peaking at around $4,730 earlier in the day. The US Dollar (USD) continues to see-saw at the rhythm of Iran war headlines, which, by the way, have brought nothing new at the beginning of the new week.

As usual, United States (US) President Donald Trump claimed US victory is clear, while the Tehran authorities maintain the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Some headlines made the rounds, claiming that Iran would reopen the Strait without a nuclear deal, something that is clearly against US wishes and off the table. Iran’s proposal is not even considered by US authorities a, the whole point of the war is to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Or at least, that’s what US President Donald Trump claims.

Meanwhile, the ceasefire continues, although a return to the negotiation table seems unlikely, keeping uncertainty high.

Other than that, market participants await central banks’ monetary policy announcements. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will be the first one early Tuesday, followed by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. All of them are expected to maintain interest rates on hold and extend the wait-and-see stance ahead of more clarity about how the Middle East situation will unfold. Central banks are also expected to deliver hawkish statements, anticipating potential inflation peaks related to higher energy prices.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD trades with a bearish bias, as price holds beneath the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,706.30, the 200-period SMA at $4,727.92, and the 100-period SMA at $4,748.65. This layered overhead supply suggests rallies are likely to face selling pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is around 42, and a negative Momentum indicator reading hints that sellers still retain the upper hand, even if downside follow-through has moderated.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD also shows a mildly bearish near-term bias as price holds below both the 20-day SMA at $4,728.34 and the 100-day SMA at $4,746.20, while remaining comfortably above the longer-term 200-day SMA at $4,257.29. Short-term momentum has faded, with the Momentum indicator slipping back into negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 45, which together hint at waning upside conviction and a risk of further consolidation or corrective slippage rather than an immediate bullish extension.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-day SMA near $4,728, followed by a more consequential barrier at the 100-day SMA around $4,746, where a daily close above the latter would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the door to a more sustained recovery phase. On the downside, the immediate focus remains on how price behaves around the current $4,680 area as a short-term pivot; a clean break lower would expose the $4,600 region, while a break below the latter may hint at accelerating selling pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)