Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles around $2,900 in dull trading

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $2,899.45

The US Dollar retains the soft tone seen in the previous week amid tariffs-related concerns.
The Federal Open Market Committee will release the Minutes of its latest meeting on Wednesday.
XAU/USD trades with a soft tone in the near term, but the downside remains limited.

Spot Gold trades uneventfully at around the $2,900 threshold, as United States (US) markets are closed due to the President’s Day holiday. Canada also celebrates a holiday called Family Day, although banks in some provinces remain open. Nevertheless, market activity is restrained, with choppy action across the FX board.

The US Dollar (USD) retains the weak tone triggered last week by relief headlines, as US President Donald Trump refrained from announcing detailed reciprocal tariffs. At the beginning of the week, President Trump announced levies on all aluminium and steel imports of 25% and threatened to unveil more taxes later in the week, which he finally did not.

Meanwhile, higher-than-anticipated US inflation reaffirmed the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkishness, adding pressure on the USD. The US macroeconomic calendar includes this week the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the January meeting.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD pair remains bullish. The daily chart shows that the pair consolidates at the lower end of Friday’s range, yet it also develops above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,826. The 100 and 200 SMAs remain far below the shorter one but retain their upward slopes. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated from extreme overbought readings but lost their downward strength well into positive levels.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, however, the XAU/USD pair is neutral-to-bearish. A flat 20 SMA provides immediate resistance at $2,908.10, while technical indicators lack directional strength yet hold below their midlines, suggesting buying interest is scarce. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs continue to advance below the current level, but far to become relevant in the near term.

Support levels: 2,889.80 2,876.90 2,863.50

Resistance levels: 2,908.10 2,925.10 2,942.50

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD keeps the red near 0.6950 after weak Aussie jobs data

AUD/USD holds losses near 0.6950 on disappointing Australian jobs data, extending the previous day's retracement slide from the monthly high and hitting a fresh weekly low during Thursday’s Asian session. Meanwhile, declining US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the April 2025 high, touched after Wednesday's hot US CPI, helping limit losses for the currency pair.

USD/JPY slides back below 158.00 as USD reverses post-CPI gains

USD/JPY extends the previous day's pullback from a three-week high, attracting follow-through selling and sliding below 158.00 during Thursday's Asian session. Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, meanwhile, reverses Wednesday's hot CPI-led gains to April 2025 highs as US bond yields retreat on China bond-buying talk, further pressuring the pair.

Gold sticks to gains below $4,150 on weak USD; bulls seem hesitant amid Fed hike bets

Gold clings to modest intraday gains through the early European session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar, snapping a three-day losing streak to a one-week low set on Wednesday. The initial aggressive market reaction to hot US consumer inflation figures faded quickly amid expectations that the Fed may not rush to raise interest rates immediately. This led to a further decline in US bond yields, prompting some follow-through USD profit-taking and supporting the non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin, XRP analyst sentiment jumps as Solana bulls hit 91%: CryptoQuant

Analyst sentiment on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, BNB and XRP has flipped bullish since July, as the top five cryptocurrencies recovered faster and more strongly than during the 2022-2023 market phase, according to CryptoQuant.

US Sept Retail Sales and PPI in focus along with corporate earnings

Asia market update: Bond traders ignore US CPI and focus on equity weakness and AI-credit concerns ahead of TSMC earnings; Kospi circuit breaker triggered for the first time since Jul; CHF and JPY rise on safe-haven demand; US Sept Retail Sales & PPI in focus along with corporate earnings. - Chinese shipping firms collapse amid capacity concerns.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?