Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD set to retest key $2,085 level ahead of Fed Minutes
- Gold price rebounds, as the US Dollar eases early Wednesday.
- The US Treasury bond yields pause its uptrend amid souring sentiment.
- Gold price remains on track to test $2,100 but acceptance above $2,085 holds the key.
Gold price is attempting a bounce above $2,060 early Wednesday, replicating the move seen in Asia on Tuesday, The US Dollar (USD) is unable to hold its previous uptick even though markets appear risk averse.
All eyes on the Federal Reserve Minutes and US jobs data
Amidst ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and simmering tensions between China and Taiwan, risk sentiment remains in a weak spot in Asian trading on Wednesday, allowing the traditional safe-haven, Gold price, to stage a modest rebound from near $2,060 region.
Investors also stay cautious, as they keenly await the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) December meeting and the JOLTS Job Openings data, which could throw fresh light on the prospects of interest rate cuts later this year. Tsunami warnings and multiple high-magnitude earthquakes in Japan also keep investors on edge, although the natural disaster has had limited market impact so far.
Despite the souring sentiment, the US Dollar is pulling back from multi-day highs, tracking the sluggish performance in the US Treasury bond yields, as aggressive US interest rate cuts seem to have ebbed ahead of the release of Fed minutes and jobs data.
Gold price started off 2024 on the right footing and tested the $2,080 barrier in the first half of Tuesday’s trading before reversing sharply to settle below $2,060 amid a solid US Dollar uptick. Markets resorted to repositioning ahead of the critical US employment data and the Fed Minutes, fuelling a fresh uptrend in the US Dollar alongside the US Treasury bond yields.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The near-term technical outlook for Gold price remains more or less the same, as the rising trendline resistance, now at $2,100, remains a tough nut to crack for Gold price.
Ahead of that level, Gold buyers continue to run into offers near the $2,085 zone, making it a stiff resistance.
If Gold price manages to find a strong foothold above these resistance levels, the all-time high of $2,144 will be next on their radar.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator looks north above the midline, suggesting that the upside potential remains intact.
Adding credence to the bullish outlook, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is on the verge of cutting the 200-day SMA from below, portraying an impending Bull Cross.
On the downside, the iinitial support is seen at Friday’s low of $2,058, below which the $2,050 round figure could be probed.
The last line of defense for Gold buyers is aligned at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,038.
Gold FAQs
Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
