Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD runs past $4,000 amid continued demand for safety

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,057.50

United States government shutdown faces critical deadline on October 15.
Federal Open Market Committee September minutes coming up next.
XAU/USD extends rally into unexplored territory, bullish despite extremely overbought.

Spot Gold surpassed the $4,050 threshold on Wednesday, establishing yet another record high. The bright metal kept rallying on the back of global political woes. The United States (US) government shutdown entered its eighth day, without signs of ending anytime soon.

Investors are looking at October 15 as a critical deadline, as it would be payday for active-duty military service members. In prior shutdowns, Congress passed separate bills to keep it funded, and it could also be the case this time, should Republicans and Democrats fail to agree on a funding bill. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reiterated his threats of massive federal worker layoffs, blaming rival Democrats.

Meanwhile, market players gear up for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes. The document should shed some light on policymakers' considerations when they decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at their meeting in September. Additionally, it could offer some clues on what’s next for monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair keeps rallying in the American afternoon, currently trading at around $4,055. The extreme overbought conditions persist in the daily chart, but also the strong bullish momentum. Technical indicators accelerated their advances, with the Momentum indicator heading north almost vertically and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator advancing beyond 87. At the same time, Gold is far above all bullish moving averages, with the closest one being the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $3,785.

XAU/USD is also bullish in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators aim higher in overbought levels, while the bright metal also runs far above all its moving averages. The 20 SMA gains additional traction but stands roughly $100 below the current level, reflecting solid buying interest.

Support levels: 4,040.40 4,021.90 4,015.10

Resistance levels: 4,070.00 4,085.00 4,100.00

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to Premium Sign In

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD falls to near 0.7100 after slipping below 50-day EMA

AUD/USD depreciates after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating sideways within a rectangle pattern, as neither bulls nor bears gain control. The AUD/USD pair is holding a slight bearish tone however as it sits beneath both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.

160.00: USD/JPY back near intervention territory after upbeat US jobs report

US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations by a wide margin in May, with 172K jobs added. The US Dollar rebounds after the release, helping USD/JPY recover from its intraday lows. Warnings from Japanese authorities continue to limit upside potential near the 160.00 threshold.

Gold targets $4,300 amid stronger Dollar

Gold faces increasing selling interest and navigates the area of three-month lows near the $4,300 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s decline comes as traders assess the stronger-than-expected NFP, while the bid bias in the Greenback and higher US Treasury yields also collaborate with the retracement.

Cardano hits five-year low even as Hoskinson clarifies "break" isn't an exit

Cardano (ADA) price is down 10% at press time on Friday, extending losses over 30% so far this week amid Charles Hoskinson's clarification that "break" isn't an exit.

Week ahead – Fed countdown begins amid US inflation data and geopolitical risks

Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting approaches as key US inflation data could reshape expectations. Oil prices remain elevated as US-Iran talks continue; tariffs also return to the spotlight. ECB is expected to hike; will it be a one-off move or is July live?

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.