Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD resumes rally, aims for $4,900 in the near term

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,890

The US Gross Domestic Product was upwardly revised to 4.4% in Q3.
The US and NATO reached a framework for a deal over Greenland.
XAU/USD resumes its advance with no top in sight.

A better market mood is not enough to take Gold price down, with the bright metal reaching yet another record high on Thursday. The XAU/USD pair reached yet another record high on Thursday, after sliding to $4,756 on Wednesday, following news that the United States (US) reached a framework of a deal with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The battered US Dollar (USD) found some demand and trimmed part of its weekly losses as the sentiment improved. Not only did Gold retreat, but stocks also recovered their shine. As the market digested the news, however, the Greenback resumed its decline and Gold its run to records, despite a positive tone in global indexes.

The latest bout of optimism was fueled by encouraging US data, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 4.4% annualized in the three months to September, up from the previously reported 4.3%.

The country also released Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for October and November. The report showed that annual inflation rose to 2.8% in November from 2.7% in October, while the core PCE Price Index rose by 2.8% in November, following the 2.7% increase recorded in October and matching the market expectation. The data showed the economy continued to grow at a solid pace, while inflation did not overheat, despite tariffs and political turmoil.

Additional hints on growth will be out on Friday, as S&P Global will publish the preliminary estimates of the January Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). Market analysts forecast an uptick in manufacturing and services activity, which, if true, should further boost optimism.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The near-term picture is bullish for XAU/USD, as the 4-hour chart shows that the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the 100 and 200 SMAs, and all three slope higher, pointing to a robust uptrend. Price holds above these references, with the 20 SMA at $4,780.64 offering nearby dynamic support and the 100 SMA at $4,558.68 reinforcing the floor. At the same time, the Momentum indicator remains stable well above its midline, failing to provide directional clues. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resumed its advance after correcting extreme conditions, currently at 73, hinting at higher highs ahead.

In the daily chart, the bullish case is even stronger. XAU/USD is trading well above all bullish moving averages, with the 20-day SMA at $4,534.57 providing relevant dynamic support. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator extends its advance into extreme levels, while the RSI does the same at around 79, without signs of upward exhaustion.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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