Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD resumes its slide sub-$3,000
XAU/USD Current price: $2,983.25
- The White House announced 104% tariffs on China starting April 9.
- Chinese authorities will keep fighting US tariffs, details on counter-measures still missing.
- XAU/USD is at risk of falling further according to near-term technical readings.
Gold price hovered above the $3,000 mark for most of this Tuesday, as tariffs-related panic eased, leading to a modest recovery in global equities. The XAU/USD pair pierced the figure in the American session, but trades within a limited intraday range, as trade war-related headlines keep rocking the board.
The tepid good mood seen throughout the first half of the day soured on headlines indicating that the White House Press Secretary said 104% additional tariffs went into effect at noon Eastern time because China has not removed its retaliation. The 104% additional tariff will be collected starting tomorrow, April 9. Wall Street holds on to the green, but trimmed half of its early gains, helping the US Dollar (USD) across the board.
Earlier in the day, China’s Commerce Ministry said they would “fight to the end” against US tariffs. There were no specific details on how Beijing will retaliate, but indeed, the answer is coming. Additionally, Chinese authorities noted that if the United States (US) wants to talk, it should show respect. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian added that “We will continue to take resolute and strong measures to safeguard our legitimate rights and interests.”
The world keeps revolving around US President Donald Trump’s trade war, and the recent calm is just a pause. Turmoil is expected to continue in the upcoming days, as more major economies are likely to announce countermeasures.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that the intraday spike was quickly reversed, and that the pair trades at fresh daily lows in the $2,970.00 region. The risk remains skewed to the downside, as Gold develops below its 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which lacks clear directional strength. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level, yet technical indicators stand well below their midlines, partially losing their bearish strength.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the bearish case is clearer. A bearish 20 SMA crossed below a flat 100 SMA, while XAU/USD is currently sliding below the 200 SMA. Finally, technical indicators remain within negative levels without certain directional strength.
Support levels: 2,970.30 2,959.00 2,942.50
Resistance levels: 2,998.30 3,015.55 3,022.60
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Author
Valeria Bednarik
FXStreet
Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.
