|

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD resumes its slide below $3,300

XAU/USD Current price: $3,295.59

  • Mounting global trade tensions maintain the US Dollar on the winning side.
  • The United States will release the July Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
  • XAU/USD could reach lower lows before the end of the week.

The XAU/USD pair bottomed at $3,268.08 on Wednesday, setting a fresh July low after the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision. The US Dollar (USD) also benefit from upbeat local data indicating the economy grew at a faster-than-anticipated pace in the second quarter of the year, while price pressures in the same period eased.

The USD rally came to a halt in Asia, but the American currency retained most of its gains, barely correcting near-term overbought conditions, helping Gold correct towards the $3,415 price zone, but quickly retraced back below the $3,300 mark amid renewed USD strength.

The Greenback found its footing on a souring market mood amid renewed global trade tensions. As the August 1 deadline looms, trade deals are nowhere to be found. In fact, US President Donald Trump announced massive 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, and an equal levy on all imports of semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products on Wednesday. Furthermore, he said that it would be “very hard” to clinch a deal with Canada after the country backed statehood for Palestine.

The week will end with a bang, as the US will publish the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Market players anticipate that the US added 110K new job positions in July, below the 147K gained in June. The Unemployment Rate is expected to have ticked higher, from 4.1% to 4.2%. Additionally, wage inflation, as measured by Average Hourly Earnings, is expected to have risen by 0.3% in the month and by 3.8% from a year earlier, higher than the 0.2% and 3.7% respectively posted in June.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it holds on to modest intraday gains in the $3,290 price zone. The same chart shows a bullish 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is partially losing its bullish momentum while offering dynamic support at around $3,268.00. The same chart shows the 20 SMA remains flat above the current level, while technical indicators head south with uneven strength within negative levels.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD has room to extend its slide. A firmly bearish 20 SMA provides intraday resistance while falling further below the 100 and 200 SMAs. At the same time, technical indicators resumed their slides after failing to overcome their midlines, presenting sharp downward slopes.

Support levels: 3,281.90 3,268.00 3,246.20

Resistance levels: 3,311.15 3,328.60 3,345.00

Author

Valeria Bednarik

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

More from Valeria Bednarik
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD declines toward 1.3500 as markets turn risk-averse

GBP/USD comes under bearish pressure and declines toward 1.3500 on Tuesday. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.9% in the three months to June, against a forecast of 4.8%, while Employment Change arrived at 83K in the same period versus 147K previous. Weak UK labor data, combined with the risk-averse market atmosphere amid a re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East weigh on the pair.

EUR/USD retreats below 1.1600 on modest USD recovery

EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and trades below 1.1600 in the second half of the day on Tuesday, even after the data from the Eurozone and Germany highlighted improving economic sentiment in August. The US Dollar (USD) benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere as tensions in Middle East remain high, making it difficult for the pair to turn north.

Gold sticks to losses below $4,400 as USD recovers further from two-month low

Gold remains depressed below the $4,400 mark through the first half of the European session, snapping a two-day winning streak amid a broadly firmer US Dollar. Inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices back the case for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in 2026.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP falter amid escalating US-Iran tensions

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly correcting on Tuesday, with Bitcoin edging lower toward $64,000. Ethereum shows weakness amid ongoing narrow-range consolidation, while Ripple trades below $1.00, weighed down by falling technical indicators.

Fiscal concerns and doubts on Fed independence send US yields to long-term highs

US Treasury yields keep rising across the curve this week, with the yield for the 30-year Treasury bond reaching its highest level since 2007, during the global financial crisis, at 5.33% so far on Monday. A mix of concerns about the ballooning US fiscal deficit and growing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s Independence are increasing pressure on US Government Bonds.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?
Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.