Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains stuck between two key levels, eyes private US data

Gold has reverted to the $4,000 threshold in Asian trades on Monday, but buyers trade with caution, awaiting the private data releases from the United States (US). The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is due later in the day.  

Gold appears ‘buy-on-dips’ trade as a new week kicks in

Safe-haven flows return at the start of the week on Monday, as investors fret over the economic impact of the prolonged US government shutdown, which is set to become the longest on record.

Further, weak Chinese private Manufacturing PMI data and renewed US-China trade risks weigh on sentiment. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, declined to 50.6 in October from the six-month high of 51.2 in September, missing markets’ expectations of 50.9.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump came out on the wires and noted that he plans to block China from obtaining Nvidia’s most advanced semiconductor technology, per CBS News.

His comments could refuel US-China trade tensions that were eased last week following the meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last Thursday on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea.  

The prevalent risk-averse market environment injects life into the traditional store of value, Gold, after it continued its previous downside in the early hours.

Additionally, a pause in the US Dollar’s winning streak helps Gold stage a decent comeback.

Later in the day, Gold traders will closely monitor the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data, in the absence of any official publication of statistics, for fresh hints on the health of the American economy, especially after the cautious interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) last week.

Markets are now pricing in a 69% probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in December compared with a 91.7% chance a week ago, the CME Group's FedWatch tool shows.

That being said, the US-China trade headlines and speeches from Fed officials will also be eyed for any impact on risk sentiment, eventually affecting the safe-haven Gold.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold price is flirting with the $4,000 barrier, after having closed the week above it on Friday.

Adding credence to the upside bias, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays bullish, while sitting just above the 50 level.

If the renewed upside extends, buyers will target the $4,050 psychological level, followed by the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,082

The next critical resistance is aligned at $4,129 – the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the parabolic rise to the record high that began on August 19.  

Conversely, the immediate support is seen at the 38.2% Fibo level at $3,973, below which a test of the 50% Fibo of $3,847 will be inevitable.

Thereafter, the 50-day SMA at $3,833 will come to the rescue of buyers. A sustained break below the latter will put the $3,800 level at risk.