Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD reconquers the $2,350 mark

XAU/USD Current price: $2,354.46

• Tepid United States data put modest pressure on the USD ahead of the American opening.
• Russian President Putin spurred risk aversion by speaking about the nuclear doctrine.
• XAU/USD is firmly bullish in the near term, could extend advance towards $2,400.

XAU/USD accelerated north on Thursday, trading above the $2,350 mark and at its highest in two weeks. The US Dollar lost steam following the release of United States (US) tepid data, as the country reported that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 14 were up by 238K, worse than the 235K expected.

Furthermore, Building Permits fell by 3.8% MoM in May, while Housing Starts declined by 5.5%. Finally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey printed at 1.3 in June, down from the previous 4.5 and worse than the 5 anticipated.  

Nevertheless, the Greenback managed to turn higher against other major currencies and remained pressured against Gold amid a bout of risk aversion triggered by Russia. President Vladimir Putin said the country is considering introducing changes to its nuclear doctrine, including lowering the threshold for the use of such weapons in the West. Additionally, Putin said that Russia could provide other countries with its weapons as the West does to Ukraine.

On Friday, S&P Global will release the preliminary estimates of the US June PMIs, which are expected to indicate a slight contraction in business growth. The economy, however, is expected to remain in expansion territory.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technical readings in the daily chart show that XAU/USD positive momentum is building up. The pair advanced above a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing dynamic support at around $2,334. The 100 and 200 SMAs accelerated their advances below the shorter one, maintaining their upward slopes. Finally, technical indicators are crossing their midlines into positive ground for the first time in a month.

The near-term picture is bullish. Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart head north almost vertically, approaching overbought territory without signs of upward exhaustion. At the same time, XAU/USD is trading above all its moving averages, although the 20 SMA barely turned higher below the longer ones.

 Support levels: 2,346.10 2,334.00 2,322.15

Resistance levels: 2,366.30 2,378.40 2,391.05