Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recaptures key 100-day SMA resistance, what’s next?
- Gold retains recovery bias so far this week, battling $4,700 early Wednesday.
- The US Dollar consolidates losses amid optimism on a de-escalation of the Middle East war
- Gold closed Tuesday above the 100-day SMA of $4,644, but bearish daily RSI cautions buyers.
Gold is sitting close to eight-day highs of $4,724 early Wednesday amid renewed market optimism on a probable de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, bracing for the US ADP Employment Change data for fresh trading impetus.
Gold cheers Mideast de-escalation hopes
The recovery in risk sentiment across the financial markets remains intact so far this week, diminishing the appeal of the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset and the world’s reserve currency, while allowing Gold to reverse heavy losses incurred last month.
US President Donald Trump continued to hint at ending the military operation in Iran, with his latest comments in an NBC News interview, citing that the war will end in two or three weeks.
On the Strait of Hormuz reopening, Trump said, “that’s not for us. That’ll be for France. That’ll be for whoever’s using the Strait.”
Earlier in the week, the US President said that he was willing to end the war without the reopening of the Strait.
The focus now shifts to the key US employment data to gauge whether an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely later this year.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP) will publish the private sector employment change data later in the day. A reading below the expected 40,000 number could weigh further on the USD, signalling worsening labor market conditions, which could prompt markets to price out a Fed rate hike this year.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report on Tuesday, the number of job openings in the US fell to 6.882 million in February from 7.24 million in January. The reading came in below the market expectation of 6.92 million.
However, the main event this week remains the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data due on Good Friday. In the meantime, the development in the Mideast conflict will be closely monitored for further trading impetus in Gold.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,691.40, retaining a corrective bearish bias after the sharp pullback from recent record highs. The spot price holds above the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), currently at $4,643.76 and $4,136.73 respectively, which suggests the broader uptrend remains intact even as the metal consolidates lower. However, the loss of the 21-day and 50-day SMAs, now overhead at $4,813.12 and $4,953.40, hints that rallies are likely to face selling interest. The Relative Strength Index (14) has recovered toward 46.05 from oversold territory but remains below the 50 line, signaling only modest, corrective upside momentum within a still-capped structure.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 21-day SMA around $4,813.12, where short-term sellers may look to reassert control, followed by a more significant barrier at the 50-day SMA near $4,953.40. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA at $4,643.76, with a daily close below this level opening the door toward the more substantial medium-term floor provided by the 200-day SMA at $4,136.73. As long as price trades between these moving-average bands, XAU/USD is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with the bias tilted lower unless bulls can reclaim the short-term averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change
The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Apr 01, 2026 12:15
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 40K
Previous: 63K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
