Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD pressures record highs aims to extend its rally

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $3,329.78

Renewed trade tensions between the US and China fuel demand for safety.
Fitch Ratings lowered its forecast for world growth amid the trade war escalation.
XAU/USD retains gains near record highs, rally far from over.

As the trade war resumed, so did Gold’s rally. The XAU/USD pair traded as high as $3,333.10 in the American afternoon on Wednesday, a fresh record high. Tensions between the United States (US) and China escalated after US President Donald Trump said China could face levies up to 245%, as a result of Beijing's retaliatory actions.

Additionally, Trump launched an investigation into the "national security risks posed by US reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivative products."

As a result, Fitch Ratings published a report stating that it has sharply lowered its forecasts for world growth in response to the severe escalation in the global trade war. In a special update to its quarterly Global Economic Outlook, Fitch has cut world growth in 2025 by 0.4pp and China and US growth by 0.5pp from the March edition.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair trades near its record high, and the daily chart supports another leg north. Technical indicators aim firmly north within overbought readings, while the pair remains far above all bullish moving averages. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently hovers around $3,100, turning into a strong mid-term dynamic support should Gold finally correct lower.

The 4-hour chart shows that the Momentum indicator heads north well above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates at around 80, reflecting extreme overbought conditions yet far from suggesting XAU/USD may change course anytime soon. At the same time, the 20 SMA keeps advancing firmly higher, far above the longer ones, in line with the dominant bullish trend.

Support levels: 3,317.20 3,305.65 3,292.80

Resistance levels: 3,335.00 3,350.00 3,375.00

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD hits nine-week lows below 0.7000 on RBA Bullock's remarks

AUD/USD reverses a brief uptick and turns lower to hit nine-week lows below 0.7000 in the European morning on Tuesday, as traders digest cautious remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock during the press conference. Earlier on, the RBA raised the cash rate to 4.60%, as widely expected, leaving the door open to further rate hikes if needed.

USD/JPY consolidates near 157.50 as a bullish USD counters intervention risks

USD/JPY struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a one-week low, consolidating around 157.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday. Trump's concerns about the Japanese Yen's weakness fueled speculation about another US-Japan joint intervention. This, along with the hawkish BoJ, underpins the JPY and caps the currency pair. Meanwhile, rising Fed rate-hike bets and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year highs, keeping the US Dollar pinned near a two-month high and supporting the pair.