Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds on to gains ahead of first-tier events

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $3,324.03

The US Dollar fell in the American session following dismal US data.
The US will release the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP on Wednesday.
XAU/USD is technically neutral in the near term, although odds favor the upside.

Spot Gold trades uneventfully within familiar levels on Wednesday, currently hovering around the $3,325 level. The bright metal shed some ground at the beginning of the day amid near-term US Dollar (USD) demand, yet buyers took their chances around the $3,300 mark.

The USD turned lower following the release of dismal United States (US) data, as Consumer Confidence, as measured by CB, fell to 86 in April, its lowest since October 2021. Additionally, the number of job openings in the country on the last business day of March stood at 7.19 million, as reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), easing from the previous 7.48 million openings (revised from 7.56 million) reported in February and below the market expectation of 7.5 million.

Still, the positive tone of equities limited demand for Gold, maintaining the XAU/USD within familiar levels.

Market players are waiting for Wednesday’s data before committing to a certain direction, given that the macroeconomic calendar will be filled with first-tier events. Australia and Germany will publish inflation updates, while Germany, the Eurozone, Canada and the US will release Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The US economy is expected to have grown at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the three months to March, sharply down from the 2.4% posted in the last quarter of 2024.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows the risk skews to the upside, yet the momentum is missing. The pair develops well above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $3,220, while far above the 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators remain well above their midlines, but turned modestly lower, not enough to suggest an upcoming slide.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD keeps seesawing around a directionless 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading higher over $100 below the current level. Finally, technical indicators turned flat just above their midlines, reflecting the absence of directional strength. The bullish case could gain adepts if XAU/USD extends gains beyond its recent range’s top in the $3,370/80 region.

Support levels: 3,314.50 3,301.40 3,288.70

Resistance levels: 3,344.60 3,358.10 3,375.00

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD defends 0.7000 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD is defending 0.7000 at the start of a new week, trading near its lowest level since August 4 amid a bullish US Dollar. US yields hold near multi-year highs amid inflation risks from higher oil prices and rising bets on an October Fed rate hike. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, continues to underpin the safe-haven buck and weigh on the pair ahead of Tuesday's RBA policy announcements.

USD/JPY climbs back toward 158.00 after BoJ minutes amid firm USD

USD/JPY finds dip-buyers and reverses part of Friday's slide driven by speculation that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish Minutes cap the JPY. Meanwhile, the US Dollar regains traction as the US-Iran standoff supports crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and reaffirming bets for an October Fed rate hike. This further supports the pair, driving it back toward 158.00.

Gold cracks $4,200 for the first time in eight weeks

Gold falls hard at the start of a new week, breaching $4,200 for the first time in eight weeks. Firming October Fed rate-hike bets, along with oil-driven inflation risks, keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs, helping the US Dollar regain positive traction amid persistent Iran risks. These factors weigh heavily on the bullion.

Cardano: Rally pauses as mixed metrics flag caution

Cardano shows signs of consolidation, trading below $0.260 after an 11% gain the previous week. Mixed derivatives and on-chain metrics point to caution among traders. Meanwhile, the technical outlook suggests bullish sentiment remains, but ADA’s near-term direction remains uncertain. Derivatives data shows a mixed and cautious outlook among Cardano traders.

The US treasury and the German yields sustain higher

The Dollar index has dipped after testing resistance and could dip for the next few sessions while Euro can rise from here. USDJPY has dipped below 158 and is headed towards 157/156 while EURJPY can trade within 181-178 region for the near term. USDINR has mild scope of testing 95.50 while below 96 but looks eventually bullish for a rise.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.