Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds near fresh records, rally far from over

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $3,115.67

US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil.
The United States will release multiple employment-related figures this week.
XAU/USD trades near fresh record highs, retracements likely to attract buyers.

Fears dominated financial markets at the weekly opening, resulting in XAU/USD reaching an all-time high of $3,128.14. A near-term pullback attracted buyers, and Gold retains most of its early gains in the mid-American session.

Demand for the bright metal is directly related to market fears. Concerns revolve around United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Market players are not only worried about the upcoming reciprocal tariffs announced for April 2, but also about fresh levies on Oil.

Trump offered an interview to NBC earlier in the day, and said he was “very angry” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, after the latter criticized the credibility of their Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump added that if he believes Russia is responsible for not reaching a ceasefire with Ukraine, he may impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil.

Secondary tariffs had already been announced on Venezuela, with Trump saying that he would place additional levies on countries that bought oil and gas from the South American country. Speculative interest rushed away from high-yielding stocks, with global indexes falling under strong selling pressure amid concerns that tariffs will have a negative impact on worldwide economic growth.

Data-wise, the focus this week will be on US employment-related data. The country will release the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday and the ADP Employment Change survey on Wednesday. Finally on Friday, the country will release the March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it's up for a third consecutive session, and despite overbought readings, there are no technical signs of a directional change. The pair develops far above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) gaining upward traction and currently at around $2,991.20. In the meantime, technical indicators stand at extreme levels, partially losing their bullish strength, yet still heading north.

The 4-hour chart for the XAU/USD pair shows indicators retreating from their tops, but are still at extreme overbought readings. At the same time, all moving averages aim north, with the 20 SMA accelerating further north at around $3,065.90. Buyers are still taking their chances on dips, although a steeper corrective slide is not out of the picture, given the extreme overbought conditions in multiple time frames.

Support levels: 3,107.40 3,095.50 3,082.90

Resistance levels: 3,128.50 3,145.00 3,160.00

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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