Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hits record high and tests channel hurdle amid safe-haven flows

Gold (XAU/USD) opens with a bullish gap and hits a fresh record high at the start of a new week amid the global flight to safety, with traders now awaiting a move beyond the $4,700 mark before positioning for further gains. US President Donald Trump's tariff threats, along with heightened geopolitical tensions, temper investors' appetite for riskier assets and boost demand for the traditional safe-haven precious metal. Apart from this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) selling turns out to be another factor offering additional support to the commodity.

Trump vowed on Saturday that he would impose an additional 10% tariffs on goods from eight European nations from February 1, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland. The countries targeted include Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Finland, along with Britain and Norway. Trump added that the rate is set to rise to 25% in June if no agreement is reached. Major European Union states condemned the tariff threats over Greenland as blackmail and are preparing a range of previously untested economic countermeasures should the duties go ahead.

On the geopolitical front, Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said that there was evidence Russia was considering attacks on key sites linked to nuclear power stations. President Volodymyr Zelensky added that Russian strikes demonstrated that they were not interested in diplomacy or ending the war. Meanwhile, Iran issued a fresh warning amid rising tensions with the US that any attack on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could spark an all-out war. This triggers a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade and forces investors to take refuge in traditional safe-haven assets.

Meanwhile, the USD moves away from its highest level since December 9, touched last week, as Trump's tariff threats trigger a crisis of confidence in US assets. However, reduced bets for more aggressive policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) help limit deeper USD losses and keep a lid on the Gold price. Traders trim their bets for two more interest rate cuts in 2026 after Trump said that he would prefer to keep National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett in his current role. This, in turn, suggests that someone else will be tapped to succeed the outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive USD bearish bets and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Thursday. This will be accompanied by the final US Q3 GDP growth report, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the XAU/USD bulls and backs the case for a further appreciating move.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical Analysis:

The ascending channel from $3,855.94 supports the uptrend, with resistance near $4,697.17. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the Signal line, the histogram widens in positive territory, and the indicator holds above the zero mark, suggesting strengthening bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index at 70.35 is overbought, which could cap gains as the Gold price tests channel resistance.

Should advances stall near the upper boundary, pullbacks would find support at $4,407.91 along the channel’s lower line, keeping the broader bias intact. A contracting positive MACD histogram and an RSI easing back toward the 50 area would point to consolidation, while a close above resistance would extend the trend toward fresh highs.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)