Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes a firm break above $1795 amid growing inflation fears

Gold price reached a four-day high at $1789 in the Asian trades and went on to consolidate the three-day advance all through the day, ending Thursday marginally higher at $1783. The two-way movements in gold price were mainly driven by the price action in the US dollar and Treasury yields price action that has been the underlying key catalysts so far this week. Resurfacing concerns over a potential default of the indebted China Evergrande Group combined with escalating inflationary fears dampened the investors’ sentiment. Mixed European corporate earnings reports added to the dour mood, triggered a rebound in the safe-haven dollar while putting a lid on gold’s upside. The near-record high close on Wall Street indices and hawkish Fed’s expectations also curbed gold bulls’ enthusiasm.

However, with the global central bankers’ underscoring growing inflation risks, gold bulls found some consolation. Gold is usually considered as a hedge against inflation, especially in light of the recent upsurge in energy prices worldwide.

On the final trading day of the week, gold bulls have regained poise, as the US dollar stalls its broad recovery and returns to the red amid improving market mood. Reports that Melbourne is heading towards reopening and US President Joe Biden hopeful to reach a deal in the infrastructure spending proposals lifted the risk sentiment. However, the main catalyst was the positive news from China Evergrande Group, with sources citing that the property development giant made an $83.5 million payment on its bond coupon on Thursday, which averted a formal default. The US rates maintain their bullish momentum, although remain off the multi-month tops.

Gold traders now look forward to the Markit Preliminary PMI reports from across the Euro area and the US for fresh signals on the economic recovery, which will likely have a significant impact on the risk tone and the dollar valuation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will be also closely eyed as a relatively data-light week draws to an end.

Gold Price Chart - Technical outlook

Gold: Four-hour chart

Technically, nothing seems to have changed for gold price on the four-hour setup, as it continues to waver a rising channel formation.

The rising trendline resistance at $1795 will continue to offer stiff resistance for gold buyers. A sustained break above the latter will yield an upside breakout from the channel, opening doors towards the previous week’s high of $1801.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading flat but holds well above the midline, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact. Meanwhile, the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 50-SMA bullish crossover continue to play out in favor of gold bulls.

However, rejection once again at the channel resistance could see gold price falling back towards the upward-sloping 21-SMA at $1779, below which the 50-DMA at $1777 could come into play. At that level, the rising trendline support emerges.

A four-hourly closing below the latter will confirm a rising channel breakdown, exposing the immediate support at the bearish 200-SMA at $1769. Further south, the upward-pointing 100-SMA at $1767 will get tested.