Dollar’s up – Everything else is down

And – unlike most market participants - you’re not surprised. 

You’re not surprised by the fact that miners declined more than gold and silver, either.

GDXJ just moved to new March lows while gold and silver are still not there. 

USD breakout verified

That’s what happens when the USD Index rallies and stocks decline at the same time. This is the case today, and the size of both moves is not that significant. This is a change in the following weeks as both: USD and stocks are likely to move in a big way – USD higher and stocks – lower.

Yesterday, I argued that improved employment numbers were not that important (as they were still weak) as the intraday reversal in the GDXJ – today’s decline indicates that this was correct.

And remember how I wrote that due to higher correlation values, silver and miners would be likely to decline more when the USD Index rallies? We see this in practice today.

As for today’s signals, I wouldn’t say if the faster-than-average decline in the GDXJ is more important than what we see in the USD Index

Headwind expected to continue

It doesn’t matter, though, because they both point to the same thing – more strength in the USD and lower prices in miners.

The important detail that we see on the above USD Index chart is the verification of the breakout above the declining resistance line. This is a perfect confirmation of the already-bullish setup based on the short-term cup-and-handle pattern and – of course – based on the long-term and medium-term indications.